RE: Scalia overruled for the last time
February 13, 2016 at 6:50 pm
(This post was last modified: February 13, 2016 at 6:51 pm by TheRealJoeFish.)
It is possible it will be a number of years before this seat is filled. Essentially, I see three possibilities:
- Obama nominates someone before leaving office, but the current congress blocks the nomination (this is almost certain to happen). A democrat wins the presidency, and puts forth a very liberal nominee (say, Posner). This is rejected and lamented, and the president then proposes a more moderate liberal minority candidate (with a moderate streak in economics, if it's Clinton, or gun control, if it's Bernie) and the senate begrudgingly passes. This would be maybe in 2018 or even 2019.
- A republican wins the presidency. The Republican puts forth one or two candidates that are swiftly rejected. The division increases the importance of the mid-term elections, which is generally good for democrats. By the 2019 congressional inaugurations, the block of senators who would prevent the nomination of anyone who would overturn Obamacare or Roe v Wade (basically, democrats and moderate conservative female senators) is a solid majority, maybe 56 or so, well over the needed 40. The republican president faces the choice of whether to a) propose a moderate candidate, with conservative economic and liberal personal rights histories (which would harm his votes from the right) or b) refuse to appoint anyone at all (which would harm his votes from moderates/independents).
- either of the above begins to occur, but a second vacancy arises through retirement or death. The establishment democrats and republicans create a block of votes big enough to allow the simultaneous, package-deal nomination of a moderate liberal and moderate conservative candidate.
- Obama nominates someone before leaving office, but the current congress blocks the nomination (this is almost certain to happen). A democrat wins the presidency, and puts forth a very liberal nominee (say, Posner). This is rejected and lamented, and the president then proposes a more moderate liberal minority candidate (with a moderate streak in economics, if it's Clinton, or gun control, if it's Bernie) and the senate begrudgingly passes. This would be maybe in 2018 or even 2019.
- A republican wins the presidency. The Republican puts forth one or two candidates that are swiftly rejected. The division increases the importance of the mid-term elections, which is generally good for democrats. By the 2019 congressional inaugurations, the block of senators who would prevent the nomination of anyone who would overturn Obamacare or Roe v Wade (basically, democrats and moderate conservative female senators) is a solid majority, maybe 56 or so, well over the needed 40. The republican president faces the choice of whether to a) propose a moderate candidate, with conservative economic and liberal personal rights histories (which would harm his votes from the right) or b) refuse to appoint anyone at all (which would harm his votes from moderates/independents).
- either of the above begins to occur, but a second vacancy arises through retirement or death. The establishment democrats and republicans create a block of votes big enough to allow the simultaneous, package-deal nomination of a moderate liberal and moderate conservative candidate.
How will we know, when the morning comes, we are still human? - 2D
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
