(April 11, 2018 at 3:15 pm)robvalue Wrote: I guess the other thing is, "Stuff I believe in that I'm not even going to try and give proper evidence for".
Yep, the prior probability is incorrectly assigned.
Funnily Richard Carrier has been accused of the same thing evaluating the Jesus mythicist position.
Maths isn't a magical solution for history, from any perspective. Interesting nonetheless.