(April 6, 2020 at 1:47 pm)Rev. Rye Wrote: I think they’re waiting for the number of new cases to decline and old cases to recover and not looking at a specific death rate, because if you go only by that and prematurely end social distancing, then you risk creating a new spike in cases, and odds are, you’re going to get back to the old levels (this defeating the whole purpose) and creating a cycle that makes it a hell of a lot longer than it has to be.
Rev. Rye Wrote:While I'm not in charge of deciding when any other nation decides to reopen, I'd think that the time would be when you subtract the dead and recovered from the confirmed cases, and the resulting number is a hell of a lot lower than the total confirmed cases. Can't give a specific percentage for that, but I'll tell you one thing I'm noticing when I'm looking at the stream: of all the nations listed in the first three columns, there are exactly TWO where it's less than 50%. Those nations? Mainland China and South Korea. And South Korea still has about 35% of its cases active. I'm fairly certain Mainland China has reached that point and South Korea hasn't.
Mr Greene Wrote:Looking at the rate of infection it looks like Australia started seeing a reduction in new cases on the 29th and is now possibly starting a more solid decline in the number of new cases, but you're looking at a minimum of 2 weeks before things can really begin relax and expect longer.
Thank you Rev. Rye and Mr Greene for actually addressing my points. I think people in here can learn from you guys
You are right Mr Greene, we started seeing a reduction in new cases at the end of last month. So maybe soon for us I think
Rev. Rye that's an interesting equation you are suggesting. When I apply it to Australia I get about 43%
I don't think it is long before Australia starts lifting lock down restrictions. I'll keep yas posted