(March 12, 2022 at 12:54 pm)Angrboda Wrote:(March 12, 2022 at 11:51 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Russia’s biggest logistics problem isn’t equipment, it isn’t food, it isn’t medical supplies, and it isn’t fuel. It’s troops.
The RAND Corporation - who are really, REALLY good at this sort of modeling - has said it takes 20 soldiers of an occupying force per 1000 population of the occupied country to hold it in the face of minimal resistance (the number increases exponentially in the face of moderate or heavy resistance). Right now, Russia is at about a quarter of that.
Putin would need at least 800 000 combat troops to secure Ukraine. He doesn’t have them and he can’t get them without sparking a revolution at home. He’s fucked.
Boru
He doesn't really need to subdue Ukraine if he can subdue Kyiv and a couple of big cities. Regime change and occupation are different goals.
If he wants the regime to stick longer than a few days he'll need to occupy the whole country. Fighting against a guerilla insurgency, especially in a foreign country, is really difficult plus the US and EU will keep that insurgency supplied for years.
They know how to do it, remember Afghanistan.
Urbs Antiqua Fuit Studiisque Asperrima Belli
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