(October 8, 2022 at 9:26 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(October 8, 2022 at 6:09 am)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: Question for the military types on the board:
Given the massive degradation of Russia's conventional military (in terms of equipment/personnel losses, international perception, economic damage, etc) is there a reasonable timeframe for how long it will take Russia to recover to the point where it constitutes a legitimate threat to its neighbours?
Boru
That depends on a lot of economic factors: how long the sanctions stay in place, how does Russia finance the material costs, etc. Uralvagonzavod, the world's largest MBT manufacturer, hit its highest peak in 2009 with 175 tanks built. Considering that the Russians have lost north of 1000 MBTs, in optimal circumstances runs out to about 6 years to replace the tanks.
The combat aircraft are even more subject to economics, being so much more expensive. There's also the fact that they're much more dependent on high-quality microprocessors which are sanctioned. And without PGMs they're not nearly so useful, and Russia has burned through most of its stock of guided missiles (at least ground-attack missiles, I'm sure they have plenty of AAMs left).
Long story short -- even with Chinese assistance, it'll be fifteen or twenty years before they return to their prewar stocking levels, I think.
That seems reasonable. I’ve read estimates from ‘arm chair’ types ranging anywhere from three years to never.
Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson