(January 15, 2024 at 3:33 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: The Fins had no love for Russia either, but were sophisticated enough to know the fins and Finland does not come off best by giving free vent to the Russophobia sentiments.
I don't think you understand my point. The Ukrainians understand that cultural genocide is on the cards, at the least. Comparing them to Finns is a red herring. You need to be comparing them, and that motivation, not to Finns, but to the Russian dogface and his motivation. Instead, we get this handwavium.
(January 15, 2024 at 3:33 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: The difference between 1989 in Afghanistan and what is left of Ukraine is Russia does not actually occupy what is left of Ukraine.
Which means that aside from his alleged "genius" at strategery, his war, stalemated two years in, has failed to achieve his opbjective.
(January 15, 2024 at 3:33 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: So insurgency can only target Ukrainians more than Russians, which is unlikely to make it particularly popular.
You forget that the Quislilng government your "thinking" is based upon would be a fat, juicy target, because traitors wouldn't be seen as Ukrainians. There's also the resource extraction back to Russia that you know would have a bullseye on it to make a Target Supercenter blush. The Russian power grid and rail net probably feature computer controls. No, this use of "only" here belies some serious limits on your thinking in this age of drones and cyberattacks.
(January 15, 2024 at 3:33 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: In areas that Russia does occupy, the ethnic mix is much less favorable to any Ukrainian insurgency against a population that is about half Russophone.
Again, you forget that guerillas hiding in hills is hardly the only vector of force in a modern war. This speaks not to the realities on the ground in Ukraine, but to the paucity of your operational imagination.
Ans you're entirely ignoring the fact that Putin's publicly stated goal is the complete occupation and elimination of Ukraine as an independent state. Backing away from that totalist aim will almost certainly erode his position in the corridors of power.
There are so many factors you clearly haven't considered -- or would prefer to remain unexplored for whatever reason.