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Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
#21
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
(May 11, 2012 at 7:27 pm)Rhythm Wrote: Lets say, in our theoretical New York scenario, that water comes up a fraction of an inch a year. That's ample time. If it rushes over the seawalls all at once 80 feet high, it is not. The first is human stupidity, the second is ACC. The first is conceivable, the second, not quite so much.

IOW, does the ocean get stormier? Where, and by how much? How would we make boats more seaworthy after establishing these two variables at the very least? That would be good policy. Millions will die because the sky is falling, not so much.

Let's look at Cyclone nargis that hit Burma in 2008, or Bhola cyclone that hit banglordash in 1970. Both cyclones hit highly fertile, densely populated lands that are well known to be prone to flood catastrophically in cyclones. The first killed about a quarter million, give or take, the second killed half a million.

Both can be counted amongst the back ground rates of casualty to normal climactic caprices. It is estimated Bhola like cyclones hit once twenty - years or so in the refion On average each occurrence kills about a hundred thousand. Ie the region can expect a million casualties attributable to cyclones per century.

Let's say ACC raise the sea level a few centimeters, doesn't flood anything when everything is calm, but increase deadly cyclone related flooding to once every 15 years. On average that increase the casualty over a century by about 200000.

That counts as casualties of ACC


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#22
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
(May 11, 2012 at 12:00 pm)Chuck Wrote: The point is modern humans evolved under certain climate conditions, and modern infrastructure is even more sensitive to the climate. The earth may not care much if the climate change, our economy would be very sorry if the climate were to change significantly from those of the last 300 years, during which we developed our climate adapted infrastructure and demographics.

So what you are saying is that it is an economics issue? Which would still lead to "How do we adapt?"
We are still working on "What Ifs" and models. Not on actual data of which some contradicts others. I gets awfully confusing and the only message getting out is "scaremongering to support the implementation of the scams for the wealthy corporations" from a lay person's point of view.


It's things like this Linkthat get your average intellect questioning what the Political/ Corporate world is saying regarding Climate Change and what is actually happening
"The Universe is run by the complex interweaving of three elements: energy, matter, and enlightened self-interest." G'Kar-B5
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#23
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
A centuries worth of people aware of an increase in deadly cyclones and no reaction by engineers and architects? Give us a little credit. Climate change, yes. Climateapocalypse, no.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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#24
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
(May 12, 2012 at 7:03 am)Rhythm Wrote: A centuries worth of people aware of an increase in deadly cyclones and no reaction by engineers and architects? Give us a little credit. Climate change, yes. Climateapocalypse, no.

There are at least 2000 year's worth of records of deadly cyclones hitting Burma/banglordash region. At least 5 in just the twentieth century killed more than a hundred thousand each. That didn't prevent another one from coming in just 8 years into the next century and kill two hundred thousand in one pop.

Give us some credit that we can work demonstrated weakness in human behavior and human societal planning into forecasts, and we can predict what is likely to happen given human track record of burying heads in sand when it comes to planning for cyclic diseasters, not just what ought to happen in blue engineering sky.

Steady increase in sea level will itself probably not cause many casualties by drowning people because people can walk faster tha sea level can rise. But it will cause casualties by drowning great portions of farm land in places where people barely subsist despite the fertility, and thereby cause reduced food production, forcing migrations, creating added competition for remaining land, probably causing more than a few wars or civil wars.

Then it will increase cyclic disasters like cyclones. People don't plan well for cyclic disasters in most parts of the world, never has. Only highly developed industrial economies like western europe, japan, us, and some reasonably developed authoritarian economies like china even honestly tries. It seems unlikely a gradual increase in cyclic disasters will suddenly motivate much of the world to start.
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#25
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
Lets not ignore the vast tracks of land that will also be made available for agriculture under those very same predictions. I would have stuck with cyclones, because now you're invoking warfare, which we don't really need an excuse for in the first place, and I definitely won't lay that one on the clouds.

Let me elaborate on why the cyclone argument isn't very compelling to me either. I grew up in Florida. Badass storms every day 4pm on the dime. Trailer parks were consistently wrecked by tornados. Every time the wind knocked over one of their tin cans you'd see the smiling doofus on the evening news "What are you gonna do now Billy Ray?"

"Rebuild". Excuse me for suggesting, Mr. Ray, that you move. Or, at the very least, take some precautions against the weather that has ripped your home to shreds three times in the last ten years. All of these examples seem to boil down to "If we assume the very worst, and people respond in an exceedingly poor manner, then life will continue, business as usual, people dying for the same idiotic reasons they've been dying for since time immemorial -and potentially at a higher rate-". Meanwhile, I'm left wondering why the climate apocalypse so often predicted as just around the corner has failed to materialize. I understand that you aren't arguing the killer wave bit. I'm just venting.
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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#26
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
Always nice to see Australia left out of the assumption that we might be able to prepare for cyclonic disasters. Undecided
"The Universe is run by the complex interweaving of three elements: energy, matter, and enlightened self-interest." G'Kar-B5
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#27
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
(May 12, 2012 at 11:15 pm)Rhythm Wrote: Lets not ignore the vast tracks of land that will also be made available for agriculture under those very same predictions. I would have stuck with cyclones, because now you're invoking warfare, which we don't really need an excuse for in the first place, and I definitely won't lay that one on the clouds.

Let me elaborate on why the cyclone argument isn't very compelling to me either. I grew up in Florida. Badass storms every day 4pm on the dime. Trailer parks were consistently wrecked by tornados. Every time the wind knocked over one of their tin cans you'd see the smiling doofus on the evening news "What are you gonna do now Billy Ray?"

"Rebuild". Excuse me for suggesting, Mr. Ray, that you move. Or, at the very least, take some precautions against the weather that has ripped your home to shreds three times in the last ten years. All of these examples seem to boil down to "If we assume the very worst, and people respond in an exceedingly poor manner, then life will continue, business as usual, people dying for the same idiotic reasons they've been dying for since time immemorial -and potentially at a higher rate-". Meanwhile, I'm left wondering why the climate apocalypse so often predicted as just around the corner has failed to materialize. I understand that you aren't arguing the killer wave bit. I'm just venting.


Warfare doesn't need excuses to start, but they do need reasons, even if you don't agree they are sufficient or that warfare is the best way to address them. One almost universal reason for warfares to start is the fact that resources you need is under someone else's control.

So what if ACC create more farm land somewhere else? That somewhere else is almost certainly already claimed and owned. The land currently being farmed will drown. People from drowned land need the new farmland owned by someone else. See the cause, not merely excuse, for war?

how about this, if there are more clouds, the same unfathomable stupidity will have worse consequences. Stupidity can't be cured, but clouds might be reduced, and it would pretty damn nifty if the consequences don't get worse. So work on the clouds.
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#28
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain

Try this...Link

(May 13, 2012 at 11:50 am)Chuck Wrote: How about this, if there are more clouds, the same unfathomable stupidity will have worse consequences. Stupidity can't be cured, but clouds might be reduced, and it would pretty damn nifty if the consequences don't get worse. So work on the clouds.

Work on the clouds to do what exactly?? We here in Oz are desperate for our clouds...and with luck some rain.
"The Universe is run by the complex interweaving of three elements: energy, matter, and enlightened self-interest." G'Kar-B5
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#29
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
[Image: 230px-Arable_land_percent_world.png]

Arable land is not now and has never been evenly distributed. Were the lines to shift, this would merely shift the direction of who is fighting over what. You'd need to be able to predict an overall decrease in arable land (which, simply due to warming alone would be difficult, what with much of the land on this rock not suitable for agriculture because it is too cold/arid). It is also possible to transform barren land into arable land.

This scenario hinges upon us simply rolling over and/or deciding to shoot each other. Again, the climate doesn't need to help us with either of those. We could roll over and/or decide to shoot each other today for similar effect. It's not that I disagree with you on the likely turn of events if such a shift in production occurred, but I couldn't get passed how damned ignorant we'd have to be to figure that it was easier/cheaper to wage war than it was to terraform. Notice, btw, that the US is midrange in arable land and yet manages to be a titan of ag. It isn't so hard to get a plant to grow. It's certainly easier than waging war (and waging war depends on plants growing in the first place -soldiers march on their stomachs-).
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
Reply
#30
RE: Climate catastrophe isn't so certain
Also have a look at rainfall. India gets heaps and has the highest arable land.
"The Universe is run by the complex interweaving of three elements: energy, matter, and enlightened self-interest." G'Kar-B5
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