Pascal's Wager (the new version)

[Muslim Scholar]

To be perfectly honest (since I'd just make a fool of myself if I didn't admit it), your post kind of went over my head. You're saying that the value of an afterlife and what you receive by believing in the correct God affects the formula/wager? And if there is a God, the value of life increases if my belief is correct? I just want to make sure I understand you.

Let me give you a simple example. Suppose there is a lottery in which the prize is $100, and a lottery ticket costs $2, and you have a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning. You probably would have a hard time persuading those 1,000 people to participate, and if you succeeded, then something is probably messed up. The prize of $100 is simply not commensurate with the risk and the cost of playing. Now on the other hand, if you increased the prize to $100,000,000 ($100 million dollars), and kept the cost of the tickets and odds of winning the same, you'll find a lot more people who are eager and willing to participate. (I could also adjust the odds so that the risk/reward is relatively the same, which is really fun in terms of watching people's intuitions, but that's another matter entirely.) The simple point is, the bigger the prize, the more you're willing to risk for it.

Now, as this relates to Pascal's wager, if the prize is actually infinite, then by the same logic, any finite amount of risk (the $2 cost of a ticket, or a life spent worshipping a god) becomes insignificant in comparison. That's the appeal of Pascal's wager. The prize is so ginormous, and the risk so small, that only a fool wouldn't take that bet.

(As you and I and others have pointed out, there are likely other relevant issues, but this seems to be the fulcrum. I will note that I have a life long aversion to gambling, so I can't suggest what an experienced gambler or book maker might say on the matter. For whatever reason, I have always found gambling, as anything more than a social pastime, to be something that I can readily do without.)

Thanks you made my point very clear; I think if you continue thinking like this you will be Muslim soon
Now let's add some more information or options

1
Iff I can give you some evidences that Islam is a true religion, or at least a probable religion then it won't be gambling anymore

2
Iff I can give you evidences that all other religion are impossible and Islam is the only possible/probable religion

3
Iff I can prove (not just evidences) that Islam is the true religion

I think at least if you cannot refute some evidences, it will give enough probability to you to accept Islam

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The only way your new wager would work is if you said everything is better than nothing. That would give you a 100% chance of getting it right because you have all 22 religions covered. But unfortunately religion does not allow you to do that.

Very good point
Islam actually accept most other religions
According to Islam, God sent 24,000 prophets (our of them are 313 messengers)
They came with the same religion (different practices)
Adam, Noah, Ebraham, Moses, Jesus and Mohamed are from the same God and they had the same beliefs

A Muslim must accept that all those religions came from God
It is human who altered the teachings (books), except for Quran

[Cyberman]

So if I were to say now that I accept the claims of your religion etc, I'm covered? Fine. I can do that. Does that mean I win?

[Creed of Heresy]

Al-Quran also states that Mohammed climbed a golden ladder into the sky.

Do tell me where he physically went after that, please? Because...we've been up in the sky and, damnedest thing, there's no floating city in the clouds filled with grapes and a beardy old dude lording it over everything. So...what gives with that?

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Also, your religion is not infallible either; you have two separate groups, the sunni and the shiite who each take different views over the worship of your religion. Either the Quran ALSO was modified by human hands, and ergo untrustworthy, or it is flawed from its source thus utterly destroying the idea of allah being perfect.

[Muslim Scholar]

Al-Quran also states that Mohammed climbed a golden ladder into the sky.

Do tell me where he physically went after that, please? Because...we've been up in the sky and, damnedest thing, there's no floating city in the clouds filled with grapes and a beardy old dude lording it over everything. So...what gives with that?

What is beyond our knowledge cannot be disproved
So your point is pointless, you cannot use it to refute Islam
and this goes to all supernatural events

Also, your religion is not infallible either; you have two separate groups, the sunni and the shiite who each take different views over the worship of your religion.

it is not only 2 groups there are much more
How people interpret books is subject to mistakes, God will judge them according to their deeds and effort

Either the Quran ALSO was modified by human hands, and ergo untrustworthy, or it is flawed from its source thus utterly destroying the idea of allah being perfect.

You gave only 2 options, for no reason or evidence
the 3rd option is to be true from God

But as we have the original copy (we have about 5 copies not only one) from Quran (written about 20 years after the prophet) then option 1 is wrong


so either Quran is true from God or flawed by Mohamed, but anyway it is genuine

[pocaracas]

How can a book be considered genuine?
If this thing you people call god or allah exists and has contacted this mohamed, or jesus, or moses, or abraham, or adam.... why the heck doesn't it contact everyone?
Why does it rely on faulty humans to write a book with its teachings? (I seem to remember that this muhamad guy was... illetarate... how did he write such a huge tome?)
Why is this god so STUPID?!? why?

Most likely answer: Because people made it up and wrote about it, like they write about so many other things which they make up.

[Ryantology]

What is beyond our knowledge cannot be disproved
So your point is pointless, you cannot use it to refute Islam
and this goes to all supernatural events

That works both ways. If a man claims to certainly know what is alleged to be beyond our knowledge, then he is a fraud.

You gave only 2 options, for no reason or evidence
the 3rd option is to be true from God

Which is 'beyond our knowledge' and can never be affirmed.

so either Quran is true from God or flawed by Mohamed, but anyway it is genuine

If it is not truly inspired directly by God, then it doesn't matter how genuine it is, because it is the scribblings of an account of a violent pedophilic madman.

[Muslim Scholar]

That works both ways. If a man claims to certainly know what is alleged to be beyond our knowledge, then he is a fraud.

Unless he knows it from a trusted source

You gave only 2 options, for no reason or evidence
the 3rd option is to be true from God

Which is 'beyond our knowledge' and can never be affirmed.

It isn't beyond our knowledge and it can be proved

[EGross]

That works both ways. If a man claims to certainly know what is alleged to be beyond our knowledge, then he is a fraud.

Unless he knows it from a trusted source

If my wife tells me to do the dishes, I know her, see her, and I can confirm it is her, and I will do the dishes (I would have done them anyhow!)

If someone claims that God spke to him or her, how can such a person be trusted. If my wife told me that, even though I love here and trust her, I would not believe her simply because she has no idea what god looks like, sounds like, or whatever to verify it was god. I would most likely take her to a psychiatrist to handle her problem with hearing voices that are telling her to do things.

David Berkowitz heard his next door neighbor's dog tell him to do things, and he obeyed "Sam".

Since Islams believes in demons, how do you know that the trusted source is not pretending to be the good god? How do you know that the prophet is not just having a psychotic breakdown? In fact, you never met mohammed, and cannot make such a distinction. You can only rely on a tradition that God spoke to him, and you accept that.

That is belief, which requires a suspension of disbelief to maintain it.

[Cyberman]

Which is 'beyond our knowledge' and can never be affirmed.

It isn't beyond our knowledge and it can be proved

Were that the case, there wouldn't be a single atheist left on the planet. Let's put it this way - I can't exactly say I've been impressed with what passes for proof so far. However, feel free to share yours.

[Confused Ape]

2
Iff I can give you evidences that all other religion are impossible and Islam is the only possible/probable religion

Which version of Islam are you talking about? There's a lot of them according to the wiki article on Islamic Shools and Branches.