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China's nationalism mutating into aggression
#21
RE: China's nationalism mutating into aggression
(July 2, 2013 at 8:05 pm)cratehorus Wrote: i personally don't understand what happened to china's cultural revolution after all they founded maoism..... why they stopped killing buddhists and taosits i'll never know..............

They stopped because Mao has achieved the purpose for which he started the culture revolution in the first place.

Cultural revolution was a tactical maneuver by Mao to achieve supremacy in communist party's internal power struggle. In 1966 he was locked in a struggle against the pragmatists, who had considerable leverage and power over Mao because of Mao's own diseasterous Great Leap Forward.

If the pragmatist fraction succeeded, Mao would have been sidelined. So he decided to resort to personality cult and incite the mass rabble to smash the power base of the pragmatists, which consisted of the educated, the intelligentia, and the traditionalists who embraced the classic culture of China.

By 1969, Mao had largely smashed the power base of the pragmatists. At the same time, he was beginning to become concerned that he had disordered China to such an extent that China may be vulnerable to an Soviet invasion. He was especially concerned with his second in command Lin, who was a Soviet trained officer that served in the Soviet army before joining the Chinese communists. He thought the Soviet Union could take advantage of the chaos in china, and use Lin to stage a coup against him. So he decided to call an end to the cultural revolution and restore order. Shortly afterwards Lin died in a mysterous plane crash in Mongolia, alledgedly while attempting to defect to Soviet Union.

Much of the political upheavals in the first 30 years of communist rule really has to be understood in the context of the tactical maneuvering in the Byzantine behind the scene power struggles between various fractions in the communist party.

(July 2, 2013 at 7:26 pm)Rhythm Wrote: The only thing that -doesn't- serve their interests is an all out apocalyptic war with the US. They don't have to fire a shot to become a superpower...but if they do fire a shot...they are almost certainly going to wind up a super-sized pile of rubble. I don;t think that you ought to worry about that too much......one assumes that the engineers of Chinas emergence of late are as aware of this as anyone else. They'll be busy doing whats best for China (a category of things that doesn't include a war with the US) - not whats best for end of days scenarios. Meanwhile, there -is- a very good reason to project strength, as you;ve noticed Creed...there are alot of nukes in the general vicinity of China........there's nothing to be gained from being the sissy on -that- particular block. Eh?

Their goal is not to seek to fight the US. Their goal is two fold:

1. To be militarily strong enough to make it a very costly and dicy propsition for the US to fight them in the region around China, so the US military power loses its credibility as a pillar of support for regional powers potentially hostile to China, and make these regional powers think three or four times before adopting any hostile attitude to China. This has been the objective of military for all up and coming powers, including a still weak but rapidly strengthening late 19th century US

2. To establish a global military presence so China could assert and protect its interests in distant areas import to the Chinese economy, such as the middle east and the mediterranean, and have a seat at the table anywhere where international military power is called to settle regional issues, like in Syrian and Libya. This too hasn't been unfamiliar as a an military objective for a major power, especially a major maritime commercial power.
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#22
RE: China's nationalism mutating into aggression
So which is it? Is China's economy really going to hit #1 or are they facing a bank collapse per this Forbes article from last month?
"How is it that a lame man does not annoy us while a lame mind does? Because a lame man recognizes that we are walking straight, while a lame mind says that it is we who are limping." - Pascal
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#23
RE: China's nationalism mutating into aggression
(July 3, 2013 at 10:48 am)Jaysyn Wrote: So which is it? Is China's economy really going to hit #1 or are they facing a bank collapse per this Forbes article from last month?

The two are not muturally exclusive. Chinese economy is overwhelmingly likely to become No 1 before 2020 whether they face a severe banking crisis or not. In the standard case, they would overtake the US in 2016, in the worst case, they woulld overtake the US in 2018.

The only things that could stop the Chinese before China would overtake the US would be:

1. War with the US
2. Collapse of the communist government leaving a power vacume.

Both seem exceedingly unlikely to happen in the near future.
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#24
RE: China's nationalism mutating into aggression
(July 2, 2013 at 7:09 pm)Chuck Wrote:
(June 29, 2013 at 6:00 pm)Creed of Heresy Wrote: Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," said...

Blah, Blah, Blah......


Is this enough for you, Chuck? Is this "valid and coherent" enough for you?

[paraphrased] Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, Gordon Chang, snarky comment.[end paraphrase]

No, given that you keep attacking one source when I'm quoting a website that cites several sources, that guy only being one of them. You've taken out part of it. Bravo. Now, the rest? You keep failing to address any more than that one area. Target fixation, much? Also, poison the well fallacy? "He hasn't made any viable predictions" you say. Well, do you have any ACTUAL information to support your own claims?? You haven't cited any sources of your own, I noticed, you just attack one of mine while blatantly ignoring the rest.

And, seriously? You respond to Cratehorus with more brevity than you do to me? You actually engage the guy who has come into this debate with nothing but bile and vitriol calmly but ME, apparently, I'm the one who gets the catty responses?

Wow. Speaks loads about you, that.

Also on that topic, I thought my initial bite-back was enough for you to get the hint but apparently not, so I'll just say it plainly: Drop the immature, catty high-schooler levels of snark, we deal with it enough from theists on this board.

Quote:The two are not muturally exclusive.

Please tell me the last time you heard of a nation that went into a banking crisis that didn't fall the fuck apart economically or at least suffer a severe economic growth hit. Banking [which is where investment, a very large part of economic growth, comes from in very high numbers] and economy are very intertwined; the collapse of China's financial institutions, or it becoming the #1 economy in the world, are VERY mutually exclusive.

That said, I found this interesting article on Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/0...CG20130705

THIS is a smart move on China's part that might actually help stabilize their financial institutions and bring in higher-end manufacturing, a key element in China's economic growth.

But THIS is also most telling:

Quote:President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have flagged for some time that the rapid growth of the past three decades needs to shift down a gear, and analysts said Friday's announcement was a signal that they intended to press on with reforms despite evidence of a sharper-than-expected slowdown.

So they might also be shooting themselves in the foot, here. If they basically begin shutting down their lower-end manufacturing in exchange for high-end manufacturing [which is what the US did, more or less] during a financial crisis, they're going to have a hard time providing financial backing for these higher-end industries. It's a gamble and if it doesn't pay off it could really cause some serious economic problems. It might not outright fuck them over but it would stunt growth quite heavily.

Also, don't mistake my suspicion towards China for hostility or the hopes that they'll collapse. Their economic downfall would not be healthy for the rest of the world's economy, and only an idiot hopes for that. Truly, I actually WANT them to succeed, for many reasons. One of which is the fact that I'm hoping if they become the most economically powerful nation in the world, our leaders in the US will get their heads out of their collective asses and realize that blowing all of our fucking money on fancy "stealth" jets that are wildly overpriced and disgustingly underperforming (I'm looking at youuuu, F-35) is NOT helping our economy and it is, in fact, retarding our growth. I'm hoping that it will shake them up and make them realize that investment in the economy, investment in education, and investment in infrastructure leads to a more prosperous nation, NOT having the biggest army-dick in the world. The second reason I want them to succeed is because, well, the more money flows through the world, the better it is for business in general. Doesn't matter where that success comes from. It could come from Russia or England or France or anywhere else for all I care. If they succeed, it will set an example of government emphasis on national development as opposed to military buildup, and that's what I'm hoping comes to pass.
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