Note to everybody: Election in February, Election in February

[GUBU]

Yes it's the moment everybody's being waiting for, the 31st Dáil has been dissolved (last Wednesday in fact), and the election has been set for 26th February next. The Irish electorate will have their say over which brand of gombeen get's to run the country for possibly the next five years.

Your humble poster is going to be a polling clerk on the day, which essentially means that I get to sit around a drafty room for 13 hours handing out ballots to anybody who presents themselves and is eligible to vote at my booth. Oh, I also get to vote ten minutes before polls open (because there is always at least one person outside the station waiting to vote from half six, fair play to them). In preparation I've bought myself two new books

Now the Dáil is the lower of the two houses the Oireachtas (i.e. the House of Commons equivalent), and exists with the Seanad (Lords). The Dáil contains all the power, and is the only House being voted for (there are Seanad elections, but the only thing harder to understand than Seanad elections is the purpose of that chamber) on the day. Elections take place on a PR basis, with a single transferrable vote being cast by each elector for candidates running in a multi-seat constituency (three four or five seats depending on size of the constituency's electorate).

Thus candidates are deemed elected once they exceed the quota, which is set at the number of votes cast, divided by the number of seats being contested plus 1. If a candidate (or candidates) is deemed to be elected on the first count, their excess is divided proportional to the total number of second preferences (of all his votes) given amongst the remaining candidates (so if we've three candidates for two posts, and Candidate A gets the quota +1,000 votes, and his number twos are divided 60/40 between B and C, B gets 600 of the excess and C gets 400). After this step (if it needs to be taken), the person(s) with the least votes are eliminated and their votes divvied up proportionally as above, until the next person exceeds the quota, whereby their excess is distributed, and so on until either all seats are filled by persons having deemed to have exceeded the quota or there are only two left standing who haven't exceeded the quota whereby the person with the most votes gets the last seat. One seat is not contested, that of the Ceann Comhairle (head of the council, i.e the chairperson or Speaker), whose seat is constitutionally protected, unless of course the Ceann Comhairle is retiring from the Dáil whereby their seat is now open.

Eligible electors consist of Irish citizens over the age of 18 who have registered to vote, and who have lived in the country in the past three years (exceptions include diplomatic or other state employees on permanent station in foreign countries), and UK nationals who have lived in the country continuously for the last 12 months who have registered to vote (an arrangement since the founding of the state, and reciprocated for Irish citizens living in the UK). Citizens of other nations need not apply to vote (though they can vote in European elections if EU citizens, or local elections if they have right of residence).

To be eligible to run for election you need to be an Irish citizen and over the age of 21 (and not a member of the European Commission, Judge, Advocate General or Registrar of the Court of Justice of EU, member of the Court of Auditors of the EC, member of An Garda Siochána {a Peeler}, civil servant {unless expressly allowed to by contract, for example, I as a Clerical Officer can run for local but not national office}, of unsound mind, not currently in prison for a sentence >6 months and not currently an undischarged bankrupt).

There are 40 constituencies this time, with a total number of seats set at 158. I got the following map from the Irish Political Maps blog (which is a pretty good resource, run by somebody I've never met nor interacted with):

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Tomorrow I'll look at the contending parties (and independents). Hopefully this wall of text isn't too offputting, there'll be more pictures tomorrow.

[GUBU]

Apologies for not getting back to this earlier, had a speech to do for Toastmasters last week, and overtime Saturday.

Well onto the parties, done in order of how they did last election

1) Fine Gael (proper pronunciation Fin-eh Gwale; actual pronunciation Fine Gale; translation "the Irish crowd)


Nicknames: The Blueshirts, Fine Gale

Constituencies: Big Farmers, Middle Class, Upper Civil Servants, what few industrialists we had, rcc and coi old money.

Current representation: 66 down from 76 (jncluding Sean Barrett the current Ceann Comhairle, who is Fine Gael, but neutral for parliamentary purposes)

History:

Fine Gael are one of the two parties born of original Sinn Féin (the other being Fianna Fáil). They are technically the result of a reverse takeover by the former government party Cumann na nGaedhal (older spelling, trans: the club/society/association/loose grouping [delete as appropriate, cumann does a lot of work] of the Irish), by the Army Comrades Association, the Irish version of the fascists and called the Blueshirts. Luckily Gen. Eoin O'Duffy head of the ACA and former commissioner of An Garda Siochána (the Peelers) was as inept a politician as the banana is as the atheists' nightmare, and the C na nG politicians took back over the party from him, and kept it democratic. Since they lost power in the 1932 election they've been traditionally the second party in the state, being on occasion able to form single or part term governments with Labour and Independents or sundry minor parties. But most often the Fine Gael leader finds himself in charge of the official opposition

Policies:

A mixture of traditional Country Tory and Maggie Thatcher, i.e. Dave Cameron before he came along. Traditionally they favoured the big farmer and the business owner, weren't too bothered about poor people being poor and less likely to be shouty about perfidious Albion (England to the rest of you). Though interestingly it was a Fine Gael Taoiseach (Irish for Prime Minister) John A Costello who declared the country a republic (in the shortest act ever passed by this country) in 1949 after the Governor General of Canada insulted us at a diplomatic function.

More recently they've been more socially liberal, while cleaving to free market and anti union policies. However that looks set to change in the near future, with very Tory young guns coming up the ladder.

Big men (or women):

Tree "Enda Kenny" Stump

Current leader and first man in a long time to make the party the country's largest. Has survived a few abortive putschs within the party. Man of the Wessssssshhhht from Mayo, with strong GAA pedigree (coached his club to county honours in the past). However, he thinks he is much cleverer than he actually is and is prone to gaffes and bizarre utterances (such as his recent statement that he nearly had the Army out stopping people using ATMs with their Steyr Augs back in 2011). His media presence is best described by the fact that in 2011 his handlers thought it best that he stay far away from microphones if possible during the election.

Michael "Baldy" Noonan

Minister for Finance, and the comeback king. Was previously minister for Angola (our pet name for the health department in this country, its so bad) usually given to people you want killed off quickly, and party leader in the early noughties when they were performing disasterously badly. Given the finance job in the current government solely on the twin facts that he backed our glorious Tree Stump in the last abortive push and that he can speak for hours without saying a thing. For a while the media thought he was the second coming of Einstein, but then they realised he's not that bright.

Leo "Vlad" Varadkar

Probably the strongest performer in the government, holding the poisioned health portfolio for the last 18 months and not being too badly tarnished by it. He may not be the next leader, as a Dublin boy he's too far from the tradition country power bases, but don't count him out. He is the party's intellect, and best speaker. And while I respect the man, a lot, I wouldn't vote for him, he's very much of the Thatcher wing.
And to show how far the country has come in the last twenty years, he came out as gay during the same sex marriage referendum, and probably the worst thing said about him was "I hope he settles down with a nice fella"

Prospects:
Will be the largest party, sitting at somewhere between 27 and 30 % in the polls. However they'll lose between ten to fifteen seats, and may not get back into government.

2) Labour (Irish Pairtí an Lucht Oibre; the party of the labouring crowd)


Nicknames: don't really have any.

Constituencies: traditionally the urban poor, and in some counties (eg Tipperary) the rural poor. Today, the middle class social liberals, if they can get them.

Current representation: 33 down from 37 at the election.

History:
The oldest party in the state, Irish Labour grew out of UK Labour, and was essentially the same thing for many years. Supported Sinn Féin after the 1916 rising, but were stupid enough not to run any candidates in the 1919 UK elections, meaning they were sidelined for many years. Traditionally much merriment has been gotten from their incessant splittist tendencies (think the Colosseum scene from The Life of Brian), but in the late 80's and early 90's merged with other left wing parties to be the main leftish voice in the Dáil. Traditionally goes in with Fine Gael in coalitions, though they did support Fianna Fáil in the early nineties, during their last time with bigish numbers.

Policies:
Think UK Labour, though interestingly, they were slightly ahead of Blair in dropping any pretences of socialism.

Big Women (or men):

Joan "Brutal" Burton

Party leader, shafted previous party leader Eamonn Gilmore in 2014, after he shafted her for Labour's financial minister job in 2011. She is Táiniste (deputy PM) and minister for Social Protection. Has done nothing but slavishly follow Fine Gael leads since becoming leader and is generally loathed by the poor of Ireland. Would have been seen as a very strong politician in the past, but leadership came too late (she's 67) and is a spent force. Will not be leader in March, may not even be a TD.

Brendan "Howling" Howlan

Minister for Public Expinditure and Baldy's right hand man in government. Veteran Dáil deputy and big man in the party, though never got the nod for leadership. Will probably fall into his lap after the election. Is very much the face of the right wing shift in the party.

Alan "AK47" Kelly

From his self-appointed nick name you get his image of himself, a tough talking, take no prisoners action man. In reality his a muck savage from Tipp and easily out maneuvered, as evidenced by his recent failure to bring in some form of rent controls. Was thought of as the coming man within the party and got deputy party leader on that fact, but he is now considered a dead man walking, and it is iffy if he's a TD come March.

Prospects:
Frankly we've a better chance of seeing a dead Dodo. They are running at 6-8% in the polls, and while transfers in the past would have translated this into 14 to 15 seats, the fact that they've abandoned the left and there are now actual left parties around means, they'd be lucky to halve their seats from the last election.

More to come...

[Reforged]

I read it as "Electron in February".
Doesn't even make sense but I still got excited. I have a strange brain.

[Edwardo Piet]

I'm always doing stuff like that, RD.

I misread almost everything as "Turtle haz mayo".

[GUBU]

3) Fianna Fáil (proper pronunciation Fee-anna Fall; current pronunciation Fee-anna Fail; translation The Soldiers of Destiny [also one of the names for the army])

Nicknames: Soldiers of Destiny, the Parish Pump, the Galway Tent (a tent the party had the Galway races which became a side word for graft)

Constituencies: Small farmers, urban poor, rural poor, industrialists, anyone they could get to listen to them really

Current representation: 21 up from 19 (previous Ceann Comhairle not included in the 19)

History:
The second offshoot of the original Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil grew out of first of all Eamonn de Valera's refusal to bow to the wishes of the people and accept the 1921 Treaty, and second of all his realisation in 1926 that sitting outside the Dáil tent pissing in was getting him nowhere. He thus dropped his unbreakable pledge never to swear to the British Crown and took his party into the parliament. Won the election in 1932 and were the big dogs in the Dáil from then until 2011, when the economic crisis pulverised them. They are very like Fine Gael, except a lot cuter, and able to pull the wool over the eyes of many. Historically they have also skated very closely to the line in terms of morality and legality, though they've also had some very good leaders. And in Eamonn de Valera, they produced Ireland's only American head of state.

Policies:
Try to fool all of the people all of the time, most of the time suceed in fooling enough of the people enough of the time. Are vaguely left wing in rhetoric, though often enough mirror Fine Gael when it comes to actions. It is a rare Fianna Fáil leader who doesn't do well out of his time in government though.

Big Men:

Micheal "the Cork dauphin" Martin

Corkonian, with all the cockiness and sense of entitlement that entails. Is a member of the old guard, but has cleaned up his act since becoming leader after the last election, and seems to be genuinely working to clean out the Augean stables that is the party and renew it. Can be quite sensitive to challenge, and has caved in in the past to opposition he shouldn't have.

There really aren't any settled big beasts at the moment. Most of the main movers are too old(Eamonn O'Cuiv [of the de Valera clan]), too unsavoury (Niall Collins) or too thick (Willie O'Dea) to be currently thought of as big beasts. Will develop some during the election I have no doubt.

Prospects:
Will get back some of their vote. Currently at c19% in polls. However, the sensible money is that they won't regain preeminence for another five years yet. Expect circa 30 TDs in the next Dáil

4) Sinn Féin (pronunciation Shin Fein (rhymes with Vein); translation Ourselves, by Ourselves)


Nickname: the 'RA

Constituencies: Irredentist republicans, left-wingers.

Current representation: 14 (no change)

History:
Despite their name, the party is only tangentially related to the Independence movement of 1919-1921. They essentially came into being as the political wing of the Provisional IRA, the violent response to the attempted suppression of the civil rights movement in the North. For most of their existence they've been a Northern focused party, with very little representation in the South, outside of Donegal and Kerry. Since the mid noughties however the party has built a formidable machine in urban areas and has steadily increased its representation at both local and national levels. They are now probably 50/50 split between the Republic and the North.

Policies:
Left wing on provision of services, probably don't have the taxation policies to support these policies. Can be conservative socially, as they do have a catholic background. They are the biggest left centre party around and will look to consolidate the same.

Big Men and Woman:
Gerry "Grizzly" Adams

The party's main man since its foundation. May have been a PIRA big cheese. Lead the party into the Good Friday Agreement and was strongly pro-peace movement after that. Has skeletons in the closet, undoubtedly, but has managed to avoid any big scandal so far. Is getting on, so may not last as leader after the election.

Mary Lou McDonald

For a long time I thought she was an idiot (three years ago I'd have given her nickname as Jade Goody), but she has matured over the past few years, has developed a strong persona in committee work and is now heir apparent. She may become our first female Taoiseach if Sinn Féin can drop their IRA stigma.

Pearse Doherty

Another young go getter in the party, and probably the best brains in the group. Is the current financial spokesperson, and is capable of landing a few punches. The party is very disciplined, so if he harbours ambitions of leadership will have to wait to see if Mary Lou shoots herself in the foot.

Prospects:
Will continue to grow. Currently neck and neck with Fianna Fáil, so expect around thirty seats for them too.

I'll write up on the smaller parties and give a summation of the independents tomorrow (and there are a lot of independents running). And after that I'll give possible make ups of the next government, as I see it.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

No one in the Republic wants my party (SDLP) to play in their sandbox.

Funny, that....

Boru

[Alex K]

Very fascinating! Reads a bit like a report from a different planet

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Very fascinating! Reads a bit like a report from a different planet

'Like'?

Boru

[Edwardo Piet]

Happy 5000th post.

Boru

Fake ETA:

Oops. I meant: "Happy 5000th post, Boru."

[GUBU]

No one in the Republic wants my party (SDLP) to play in their sandbox.

Funny, that....

Boru

Weren't Fianna Fail trying to covet them for a while in the 90's?