UK to leave EU

[I_am_not_mafia]

For myself I live in Scotland when I live in the UK and Westminster doesn't give a shit about Scotland. I don't trust the Tories as far as I could throw them. I also know that they have been trying to remove all worker's rights in order to stimulate the economy, and it was the EU that was stopping them. Which is why they were trying to renegotiate the deal with the EU.

I personally need to be able to look for work anywhere in Europe. My house is actually in Germany because I can't afford to buy in the UK and years ago I realised that there was no viable future for me in the UK. Not one with any job security, pension or house. Things haven't been ideal for me in Germany either but it's only the language that is holding me back.

Fair enough, we all vote for our own reasons.

Where in Germany are you?  I was born in Munster and have lived in a few different places.

My parents have a house in the Harz which they are unable to sell and will be putting in joint ownership with us. We have all of our stuff there and look after the place so it works out well for both of us. It's got like 20 rooms, made up of 3 flats etc and costs less than a single flat in Edinburgh.

I used to work in Munich. My father's originally from Bavaria. I'd like to return to Bavaria if I can, especially as I have two years of a state pension there already. I do find it a little too hot though, especially after living in Scotland.

[abaris]

Exactly, Dad was in the British army.....sent me all over.

You know, you didn't ask me but Alisdair. But think back a century. This very day, a century ago. That's when the battle at the Somme started. All our peoples lay in opposite trenches and were shooting and killing each others. That's why I am pro European.

[abaris]

I used to work in Munich. My father's originally from Bavaria. I'd like to return to Bavaria if I can, especially as I have two years of a state pension there already. I do find it a little too hot though, especially after living in Scotland.

The Texas of Germany.

[SofaKingHigh]

The FTSE will be back up around 6,300 as it was before the referendum.

If the FTSE goes down and then goes back up to where it was isn't that worse than if it simply hadn't gone down?

It isn't that simple, but markets go up and down, that's what they do.  What markets don't like is uncertainty, once this all calms down and the hysteria is replaced with rational thinking the markets will even out.

Sterling getting a kicking could actually be a very good thing for us, your holiday might be more expensive, but our exports will be much more attractive.

To put it into perspective mate, it was down to 3800 in 2008, we're nowhere near that and I'd guess we won't get anywhere near it either.

[SofaKingHigh]

Exactly, Dad was in the British army.....sent me all over.

You know, you didn't ask me but Alisdair. But think back a century. This very day, a century ago. That's when the battle at the Somme started. All our peoples lay in opposite trenches and were shooting and killing each others. That's why I am pro European.

Abaris, I'll be honest, one of the huge things that pulled at my conscious was this very thing, maybe I'm an optimist in thinking that we don't need the EU to stop Europe falling into all out war again.

Maybe I'm a fool, we'll see.

[Edwardo Piet]

@ abaris

Think the sad expression of "alas" as in "Alas, it is not to be" and think "dairy" but without the "y"

I'm Alasdair, not Alisdair.

It doesn't really matter but just in case you wanted to spell my name right and wanted a help at remembering. There are lots of alternative spellings of "Alistair" and mine is "Alasdair".

Why is it that I can't seem to make this request without sounding petty or bitchy or awkward? I have honestly tried to make it polite. I hope it has come across that way. It is honestly not a big deal and I hope "it's not a big deal" sounds as honest as it is

[Homeless Nutter]

[...]Sterling getting a kicking could actually be a very good thing for us, your holiday might be more expensive, but our exports will be much more attractive.[...]

That's nice - what about imports?

[Edwardo Piet]

You know, you didn't ask me but Alisdair. But think back a century. This very day, a century ago. That's when the battle at the Somme started. All our peoples lay in opposite trenches and were shooting and killing each others. That's why I am pro European.

Abaris, I'll be honest, one of the huge things that pulled at my conscious was this very thing, maybe I'm an optimist in thinking that we don't need the EU to stop Europe falling into all out war again.

Maybe I'm a fool, we'll see.

Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be. We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecast the future, which fosters overconfidence. In terms of its consequences for decisions, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant cognitive bias. Because optimistic bias is both a blessing and a risk, you should be both happy and wary if you are temperamentally optimistic.

[abaris]

Abaris, one of the huge things that pulled at my conscious was this very thing, maybe I'm an optimist in thinking that we don't need the EU to stop Europe falling into all out war again.

Maybe I'm a fool, we'll see.

I'm not that optimistic, since, as I said in my own thread, we had a shooting war at our borders with border violations in 1991. Most of these former Yugoslavianian countries are now part of the EU with Serbia as a candidate. If they all left, due to nationalism - not as remote a possibility as it may seem - the border disputes would start over in an instance. They still have accounts to settle with each others.

Also, our own nationalists, have announced their craving for Southern Tirol - part of Italy since Trianon. Now we're not strong enough to take military action, but if they came to power and turned that demand into policy, it would sour our relationship with Italy considerably. Also, not as remote a possibility as it seems.

As for Germany - still doesn't look as if the AFD or any other nationalist movement could come to power in the foreseeable future. But there are streams on the right that never accepted the loss of Prussia to Poland.

Only scratching the surface there. De Gaule and Adenauer had the right idea. Let's not destroy that in a short sighted manner.

[Edwardo Piet]

If the FTSE goes down and then goes back up to where it was isn't that worse than if it simply hadn't gone down?

It isn't that simple, but markets go up and down, that's what they do.  What markets don't like is uncertainty, once this all calms down and the hysteria is replaced with rational thinking the markets will even out.

Sterling getting a kicking could actually be a very good thing for us, your holiday might be more expensive, but our exports will be much more attractive.

To put it into perspective mate, it was down to 3800 in 2008, we're nowhere near that and I'd guess we won't get anywhere near it either.

I guess I just don't see how all things being equal it going down before going back to where it was is a good thing. And I don't see how all things being equal the Sterling getting a kicking is a good thing.

All things being equal, isn't short term economic loss bad? And all things being equal isn't it more likely to be a sign of long-term economic loss than not?

I agree it's not as simple as that... but I'm going by all things being equal because I'm still yet to hear why Leaving the EU is good for the economy overall and why this short term loss is a positive step economically.

What is the financial justification for a predicted short term economic loss? Why would it ever be a good thing if most of the economic experts think it is a bad thing? Why should we trust our own hopes for a better economy in the long run if we fuck it up a bit in the short run over the predictions of the experts?