Anecdotal Evidence

[The Grand Nudger]

You ask the question, How might you best check that? but then give no answer yourself. How do you know that people ion a neighborhood are friendly or not? How do you know that you'll be happy with a particular person as your spouse, or that you'll be happier with or without children, or how many you should have?

I would hope that you spent time with your spouse, and around children, long before you got married or had any.  More examples where no amount of anecdotes will be useful
"Yeah, you should get married, it's great" -say's Joe
"She's really sweet, I;ve known her forever"- say's Sally

Well, fuck it, since you two say so; I do.  


Just stop, lol.

I did - deciding to buy a home in a certain neighborhood - but I put it in general terms rather than specifically applying it to myself. At the time I was deciding, my assistant at work lived less than a block from the home I was looking at. She told me that the neighborhood was safe and the residents were mostly friendly but many were somewhat nosy, and there wasn't any problem with noise at night. That influenced the decision. Why shouldn't it? It's hardly foolish and irresponsible.

So, we're not basing our decisions on anecdote anymore, as claimed, just letting them "influence" our decisions.  You took her word for it, did you?  Didn't check to see if it actually was safe, spend some time in the neighborhood to check the noise level, meet her neighbors? Knew nothing about the place?  Foolish.  Either that, or you're omitting all of the things you did that "influenced" your decision.  Like checking the mortgage, resale, and equity.

I love how the bold claim made has shriveled and changed with time, as each supporting example contradicts it. By next post you wont be basing decision on anecdote, and they won't be influencing decisions...you'll just have heard some stories.

[John V]

I would hope that you spent time with your spouse, and around children, long before you got married or had any.  More examples where no amount of anecdotes will be useful
"Yeah, you should get married, it's great" -say's Joe
"She's really sweet, I;ve known her forever"- say's Sally

Well, fuck it, since you two say so; I do.

"She seems high maintenance. I married, and divorced, a woman a lot like her."
"I married too young. Looking back I think I should have waited."
"With your third child, it's a different ballgame, because it's never one-on-one again."

These are useful, or at least can be if you're not so arrogant that you ignore it. Regarding children, what we gathered was that couples where both worked were more stressed, so she quit her job with the first child.

This is your tell for when you know you're losing.

So, we're not basing our decisions on anecdote anymore, as claimed, just letting them "influence" our decisions.

Yes. People type quickly on forums. I omitted the single word "partially," and now you're hanging your hat on that since I'm showing examples that most people can relate to. Believe it or not, a lot of people actually talk to other people who have experienced things and try to learn from the others' experiences.

You took her word for it, did you?

Yes, and it was accurate.

Didn't check to see if it actually was safe, spend some time in the neighborhood to check the noise level, meet her neighbors?

She had no reason to lie.

I love how the bold claim made has shriveled and changed with time, as each supporting example contradicts it.  By next post you wont be basing decision on anecdote, and they won't be influencing decisions...you'll just have heard some stories.

I love how you keep hounding a point I've conceded because you're losing the overall argument.

I base...oops, partially base...buying decisions on reviews posted online. Anecdotal evidence. Lots of people do.

[John V]

Woman claims that Donald Trump sexually assaulted her.

Woman claims that Bill Clinton raped her and Hillary helped cover it up.

Do we just dismiss such things because they're anecdotal, or do we assess them as best we can and base...oops, let them influence our voting decision?

[downbeatplumb]

Woman claims that Donald Trump sexually assaulted her.

Woman claims that Bill Clinton raped her and Hillary helped cover it up.

Do we just dismiss such things because they're anecdotal, or do we assess them as best we can and base...oops, let them influence our voting decision?

What's the evidence?

[abaris]

Woman claims that Donald Trump sexually assaulted her.

Woman claims that Bill Clinton raped her and Hillary helped cover it up.

Do we just dismiss such things because they're anecdotal, or do we assess them as best we can and base...oops, let them influence our voting decision?

First, one is a former president, the other one is just running for president. So Clinton doesn't interest here. Bill, that is. So unless there are allegations of Hillary aiding and abetting her husband, she's not the one being even suspected of having done bad things.

Secondly, there's no evidence. Only allegations. That goes for Trump as well as Clinton - Bill. What Trump says should influence voting decisions on it's own merit.

[John V]

Woman claims that Donald Trump sexually assaulted her.

Woman claims that Bill Clinton raped her and Hillary helped cover it up.

Do we just dismiss such things because they're anecdotal, or do we assess them as best we can and base...oops, let them influence our voting decision?

What's the evidence?

The mainstream media seems to think the claim itself is evidence, at least in the case of Trump.

[The Grand Nudger]

"She seems high maintenance. I married, and divorced, a woman a lot like her."
"I married too young. Looking back I think I should have waited."
"With your third child, it's a different ballgame, because it's never one-on-one again."

These are useful, or at least can be if you're not so arrogant that you ignore it. Regarding children, what we gathered was that couples where both worked were more stressed, so she quit her job with the first child.

It's not an issue of arrogance numbskull.  All of those anecdotes are useless to me for the same reason that any anecdote is useless and for the same reason that "anecdotal evidence" isn't evidence.  You gathered a data set regarding perceived stress...which is empirical, not anecdotal.  Try again.

This is your tell for when you know you're losing.

Are we playing checkers or something?  Maybe it's just what I think of your posts?

Yes. People type quickly on forums. I omitted the single word "partially," and now you're hanging your hat on that since I'm showing examples that most people can relate to. Believe it or not, a lot of people actually talk to other people who have experienced things and try to learn from the others' experiences.

It doesn't seem like you base your decisions, even partially, upon anecdotal evidence. 

Yes, and it was accurate.

At least it worked out well, but I don't believe that you did.  / shrugs

She had no reason to lie.

Who said anything about her being a liar?  I used to live by a railroad track....didn't hear it.  This is -why- anecdotal accounts...and in this instance of something entirely subjective and relative -noise level-, are useless as evidence.  

I love how you keep hounding a point I've conceded because you're losing the overall argument.

I base...oops, partially base...buying decisions on reviews posted online. Anecdotal evidence. Lots of people do.

If by "partially base" you mean allow anecdotes that both concur with empirical data and also have a reams of empirical data regarding the anecdote teller behind them...to -influence- your decisions..sure.

 All you've done is describe how little value anecdotal evidence brings..even as you attempted to make it seem like something it wasn't...while, frankly, fudging the truth about decisions you've made more than a little bit.  Your friend telling you that the neighborhood was quiet was abysmally low on the list, if it was on the list at all - and you didn't take her word for it...you went and saw and heard the place before you bought it (or you're a complete and utter idiot..take your pick).  Further, by your very own metrics, anecdotal evidence isn't particularly worthwhile in this example (..if it;s worthwhile anywhere) because there's no end of other, -actual- evidence.

There's no point in bullshitting me to bolster bullshit that you've since conceded, while simultaneously claiming some sort of victory for the very same bullshit.

[downbeatplumb]

What's the evidence?

The mainstream media seems to think the claim itself is evidence, at least in the case of Trump.

To be fair Donald Trump has said that he did those things.

[John V]

It's not an issue of arrogance numbskull.  All of those anecdotes are useless to me for the same reason that any anecdote is useless and for the same reason that "anecdotal evidence" isn't evidence.

What reason is that?

You gathered a data set regarding perceived stress...which is empirical, not anecdotal.  Try again.

Are you saying that multiple anecdotes become empirical evidence?

Who said anything about her being a liar?  I used to live by a railroad track....didn't hear it.  This is -why- anecdotal accounts...and in this instance of something entirely subjective and relative -noise level-, are useless as evidence.

No, that's why anecdotal evidence is imperfect. It isn't useless. Most people don't have the time to park outside a house they're looking at all night for a few days to check the noise level. Most people don't knock on potential neighbors' doors and invite themselves in for dinner. Testimony from neighbors is about the only way you'll get such info. It might not be perfect. It's better than nothing.

If by "partially base" you mean allow anecdotes that both concur with empirical data and also have a reams of empirical data regarding the anecdote teller behind them...to -influence- your decisions..sure.

All you've done is describe how little value anecdotal evidence brings..even as you attempted to make it seem like something it wasn't...while, frankly, fudging the truth about decisions you've made more than a little bit.  Your friend telling you that the neighborhood was quiet was abysmally low on the list, if it was on the list at all - and you didn't take her word for it...you went and saw and heard the place before you bought it (or you're a complete and utter idiot..take your pick).

See above - no, I didn't wander the neighborhood at nights checking for noise and crime. Like most people, I was at the house on a few weekend afternoons.

Further, by your very own metrics, anecdotal evidence isn't particularly worthwhile in this example (..if it;s worthwhile anywhere) because there's no end of other, -actual- evidence.

What's the -actual- evidence regarding the gettysburg address, or trump's possibly assaulting women in the past?

[John V]

The mainstream media seems to think the claim itself is evidence, at least in the case of Trump.

To be fair Donald Trump has said that he did those things.

Is that evidence that he did?