Day Zero, Cape Town, South Africa

[vorlon13]

I'm a little unfamiliar with what actually happens when a city runs out of water. Do they turn off the water treatment plant and the water mains no longer carry water? When there is a fire, what happens?

Are they prioritizing water deliveries to hospitals, schools, nursing homes, and institutions ? Or is it going to a Malthusian survival of the fittest demonstration ??

High rise buildings with apartments would seem to me to be fire traps if there is no central water supply, am I missing something?

Are there any estimates for an actual population count for Cape Town that is sustainable with the actual average water resources and is the plan essentially to just make the city increasingly inhospitable and unpleasant until that population level is reached ??

[The Grand Nudger]

Well, Cape Town is looking to be a testbed for answering those questions in modern history.

[vorlon13]

I'm not sure I'd refer to potentially deadly water riots as a "testbed".


Seems like this might have been a problem worthy of trying a bit harder to avoid. But what do I know ?

[vorlon13]

Some years ago, Cedar Rapids Iowa shut down their water plant (IIRC) but most of the city was underwater at the time due to flooding. Desiccating a city and then letting the water run out seems considerably worse to me. I'll concede the folks there running the town perhaps have a better idea how this is going to go than I do.

[Anomalocaris]

I'm a little unfamiliar with what actually happens when a city runs out of water.  Do they turn off the water treatment plant and the water mains no longer carry water?  When there is a fire, what happens?

Are they prioritizing water deliveries to hospitals, schools, nursing homes, and institutions ?   Or is it going to a Malthusian survival of the fittest demonstration ??

High rise buildings with apartments would seem to me to be fire traps if there is no central water supply, am I missing something?

Are there any estimates for an actual population count for Cape Town that is sustainable with the actual average water resources and is the plan essentially to just make the city increasingly inhospitable and unpleasant until that population level is reached ??

I believe day zero is the predicted date when the level of water in major reservoir serving the city falls below the Intake valves serving the city's water system.  After that pressure can't be maintained without shutting off most of the water distribution system.   Water will be turned off to residential dwellings and commercial businesses,. but will continue to be supplied to hospitals and public water access points.   I assume the sewege treatment will keep running as long as possible.  Water will Remain available at public Access points, but limited to about 6 gallons per person per day.

I assume that means water will be turned off to any wet risers in the high rises, but will remain available for delivery through dry risers in case of fire.

---

Incidentally southern California was near this point in winter 2014-2015, with large number of reservoirs at levels below where water can be drawn from them.

Also, South Africa and California suffered from the same symptom - agriculture siphoned off large percentage of available water while providing only a negligible percentage of employment and economic output during drought years.

[vorlon13]

Um . . .

How long till people start drilling holes in various pipes and conduits looking for water ??

I note Mexico has an enormous problem with gasoline pipelines being tapped. Seems like Cape Town water pipes that are still connected to water are going to be drilled, thirst being quite a motivation, more so than being able to drive a car with free gasoline.

I'm thinking things will devolve rapidly. Unless it rains. Hence I'm assuming prayer is the backup, if not primary, plan to avert catastrophe.

Do we have any idea if God's One True Church has an affiliate in Cape Town ??

[The Grand Nudger]

I'm not sure I'd refer to potentially deadly water riots as a "testbed".


Seems like this might have been a problem worthy of trying a bit harder to avoid.  But what do I know ?

It;s already a problem, there's no avoiding it now.

It sometimes comes to pass that a natural experiment arises that would be beyond our ethical limitations to organize.  Obviously, I don;t think that anyone should just watch it play out, but it's value is directly tied to how shitty it is...and,m hopefully, whatever data or strategies do or don;t work for Cape Town will become the basis of future responses and, importantly, preventative measures.

[Joods]

Saw this in the recent issue of Air & Space magazine:

Day Zero is the grim name given to the moment, calculated to occur THIS summer, when Cape Town, South Africa, will become the first major metropolitan area in the world to run out of water.  Due to severe drought and a dysfunctional government that has long ignored warnings from climate scientists and water engineers, citizens will be forced to pick up daily rations at emergency stations.


Probably a harbinger of things to come world wide, in my view.  I wonder how many folks will tout 'prayer' as  the solution to the problem ??

emphasis mine

Many will pray. Nothing will happen as a result. Unless people physically do something - this will be a terrible tragedy.

[vorlon13]

I was thinking tragedy myself. But I thought perhaps there was a Plan B or something. The consequences seemed severe enough the apparent plan of doing nothing seemed a little bizarre to me.

[The Grand Nudger]

Plan b is mass migration....but the other guys have guns and haven't responded well to that sort of thing in the past.