Why Trump will win in 2024.

[Thumpalumpacus]

To expand upon my point above:

Four weeks after declaring his 2024 White House bid, former President Trump appears to be a candidate in name only.

Trump announced his third presidential campaign on Nov. 15 from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, giving a long-winded speech in which he said he is seeking a return to the Oval Office “to make America great and glorious again.”

Since then, Trump has not held any formal campaign events. He has not traveled to early voting states, made any major staffing announcements or done much of anything to scare off would-be rivals.

Instead, he’s been making headlines for controversies including dining with a white nationalist and calling to suspend the rules of the Constitution to redo the 2020 election.

The failure to launch has fueled chatter that Trump is as politically weak as he’s ever been — giving others weighing 2024 campaigns more food for thought.

“His announcement and post-announcement period went terribly,” one former Trump campaign adviser said, pointing to Republican Herschel Walker’s defeat in Tuesday’s Georgia Senate runoff as the latest negative development.

[...]

He has not left Florida for any campaign events. He addressed the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas virtually while several other possible 2024 candidates attended in person. Trump did not hold a rally in Georgia in support of Walker, instead doing a telerally amid concerns his presence would turn off independent voters.

[...]

The general lack of activity has only fueled speculation among some Trump critics that the early announcement was intended to potentially insulate the former president from a possible indictment over his handling of classified documents.

Meanwhile, Trump has generated an avalanche of bad headlines with his private meetings and social media commentary.

[...]

Republican strategists largely agree that Trump still has to be treated as the front-runner in any GOP primary given his devoted base of voters that give him a solid floor of support. Recent polling has also shown that Trump is still the preferred candidate of many voters, especially in a large, divided field.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/37...that-isnt/

And:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ® has overtaken former President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 match-up for the GOP presidential nomination, according to a new Yahoo News-YouGov poll.

The nationwide poll, released Thursday, shows DeSantis with a 5-point lead over Trump, with 47 percent of registered voters backing the governor compared to 42 percent for the former president.



The latest results, taken in the first few days of December, are a stark turn from a mid-October poll that found Trump ahead by 9 percentage points, with 45 percent to DeSantis’s 36 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/37...chup-poll/

[Jehanne]

For all the worries expressed here, I think between Trump burnout, the gaffes he keeps making, legal matters, and age, he's going to get beaten pretty badly by DeSantis -- who worries me much more.

If he was an honest Republican, you'd be absolutely correct, but, as I stated in my OP; if he doesn't get the nomination, he will run as a third-party candidate (which he did before in 2000) and he will sink the DeSantis & Whoever ticket.

[The Architect Of Fate]

I doubt he would be able to sink DeSantis if he ran as an independent. I mean he would try it. But it would not work.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

If Trump runs as a third party candidate, I’m not sure why it would ‘sink’ DeSantis. You’d likely wind up with at least three candidates: Trump, DeSantis, and Biden (or a Democrat To Be Named Later). This would be extremely likely to sail the Democrat into the White House, as the hardcore Trumpers would vote for Trump, the Trumpism-But-Not Trump Republicans would come out for DeSantis, and the Democrats, moderate Republicans (fed up with Trump AND Trumpism) and independents would either break heavily for whoever the Democrats nominate or stay home.

Essentially Trump and DeSantis would split the Republican vote and the Democrat would clean up.

Boru

[Angrboda]

The problem is that the party bosses can't risk crossing Trump's base for their own interests, so DeSantis will be working against a strong headwind.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

The problem is that the party bosses can't risk crossing Trump's base for their own interests, so DeSantis will be working against a strong headwind.

A year ago, I would have agreed. But Trump’s coattails are not what they used to be, and will be even less so in two years.

Boru

[Jehanne]

If Trump runs as a third party candidate, I’m not sure why it would ‘sink’ DeSantis. You’d likely wind up with at least three candidates: Trump, DeSantis, and Biden (or a Democrat To Be Named Later). This would be extremely likely to sail the Democrat into the White House, as the hardcore Trumpers would vote for Trump, the Trumpism-But-Not Trump Republicans would come out for DeSantis, and the Democrats, moderate Republicans (fed up with Trump AND Trumpism) and independents would either break heavily for whoever the Democrats nominate or stay home.

Essentially Trump and DeSantis would split the Republican vote and the Democrat would clean up.

Boru

Yes, yes, yes!

[The Architect Of Fate]

The problem is that the party bosses can't risk crossing Trump's base for their own interests, so DeSantis will be working against a strong headwind.

Even Trumps base is slowly shifting away as Republicans realize as much as they "like him" he has too much baggage and controversy that will serve as a distraction from a successful campaign.

[The Architect Of Fate]

The problem is that the party bosses can't risk crossing Trump's base for their own interests, so DeSantis will be working against a strong headwind.

A year ago, I would have agreed. But Trump’s coattails are not what they used to be, and will be even less so in two years.

Boru

Trump is too much of a liability now and most Republicans understand that.

[Thumpalumpacus]

For all the worries expressed here, I think between Trump burnout, the gaffes he keeps making, legal matters, and age, he's going to get beaten pretty badly by DeSantis -- who worries me much more.

If he was an honest Republican, you'd be absolutely correct, but, as I stated in my OP; if he doesn't get the nomination, he will run as a third-party candidate (which he did before in 2000) and he will sink the DeSantis & Whoever ticket.

Let us cross our fingers.