Why Trump will win in 2024.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Beats me, but between that and other legal issues, at best Trump will be a distracted candidate, and at worst, any potential leaks could torpedo his campaign. It's hard to say, and my Magic 8-Ball ain't cooperating.

Trump could probably have sex with a goat on Madison Avenue and 5% of the American population will still support him.  Even if he is indicted tomorrow, it will take an entire year before any trial takes place, probably, longer.  As I said, he is going to run for President, either as the Republican nominee or as a third-party candidate; only death and/or profound disability will halt that outcome.

He has a solid base, true, but he also has a solid opposition. And with his base hovering between 38-42% of the polity, and independents already (per the 2020 ballot) being turned off from him, his chances are slim. I personally think that a Trump candidacy in 2024, be it as Republican nominee or as an independent, insures a Republican defeat that year.

This idea that he is invincible, after what we've seen in 2018 and 2020, doesn't hold much water for me. Add legal woes closing in, if I were a Democrat running in 2024 I'd be licking my chops.

[Jehanne]

No doubt whatsoever exists that the Democrat nominee, whoever that may be (with some exceptions), will win the popular vote. Question is with respect to the Electoral College. Trump, if he is able to blackmail the Republican Party, will carry the Deep South and lower Midwest up through Iowa & the Dakotas, Ohio & Indiana and Idaho & Montana. He'll lose Virginia, the Upper East Coast, the West Coast and the Southwest. Florida is in the bag, with or without DeSantis; with DeSantis, Trump will carry Georgia.

Oh, one thing is for sure if Trump gets the nomination -- no televised Presidential debates.

[Thumpalumpacus]

No doubt whatsoever exists that the Democrat nominee, whoever that may be (with some exceptions), will win the popular vote.  Question is with respect to the Electoral College.  Trump, if he is able to blackmail the Republican Party, will carry the Deep South and lower Midwest up through Iowa & the Dakotas, Ohio & Indiana and Idaho & Montana.  He'll lose Virginia, the Upper East Coast, the West Coast and the Southwest.  Florida is in the bag, with or without DeSantis; with DeSantis, Trump will carry Georgia.

Oh, one thing is for sure if Trump gets the nomination -- no televised Presidential debates.

I think the EC results from 2020 won't change much at all, unless inflation remains high. Not sure Trump would carry Georgia no matter what happens with DeSantis; they've pushed Warnock into office twice in two years, both times against Trump-supported opponents.

Trump's negative is not his base, it's that his rhetoric that the elections are rigged tends to depress GOP turnout. Couple that with his alienating independents, and that means he can only rely upon his own base, which is not enough to carry a general-election victory. This is what we saw in 2020, and that's without a special prosecutor and various lawsuits sapping his energy and attention.

Biden has to master the inflation curve. Gas prices are coming down significantly, which should help that. Diesel's under $4/gal, which makes me think retail CPI will be falling soon too. If CPI comes down and voters don't feel the pinch in 2024, then issues like the abortion ruling and "oh look, here's Trump again" become more salient to the voter on the ground. Both those work against Trump.

[Angrboda]

Yellen is predicting inflation will be under control by the end of 2023. That could be trouble for the Republican candidate, whoever that is. And like Trump rode on Obama's coattails, Biden could cruise to a second term on the strengths of an economy he did little to create.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Presidents have marginal if any input into the strength of the economy ... but voters don't care.

[arewethereyet]

Presidents have marginal if any input into the strength of the economy ... but voters don't care.

It makes a powerful headline, and the media and the PR people know it.  Spin is a powerful thing.

Now and then husband blames Biden for gas prices going up.  Like Biden actually runs around and changes the price at the pumps.

He seems to forget that in 2008 and 2009 when we were running back and forth across the country to tend to dad, gas prices were outrageous and there was a Bush in the White House.

Husband spends too much time with FOX news and other FOX news junkies at work.

I finally told him that we need not discuss politics anymore.  That's been working pretty well.  Now, when he starts, a raised eyebrow from me lets him know that this is not a discussion I intend to have with him.

[Jehanne]

Yellen is predicting inflation will be under control by the end of 2023. That could be trouble for the Republican candidate, whoever that is. And like Trump rode on Obama's coattails, Biden could cruise to a second term on the strengths of an economy he did little to create.

Let me guess, Yellen is an economist?

[Jackalope]

Yellen is predicting inflation will be under control by the end of 2023.  That could be trouble for the Republican candidate, whoever that is.  And like Trump rode on Obama's coattails, Biden could cruise to a second term on the strengths of an economy he did little to create.

Let me guess, Yellen is an economist?

Yes, Secretary of the Treasury and former chair of the Federal Reserve.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

No doubt whatsoever exists that the Democrat nominee, whoever that may be (with some exceptions), will win the popular vote.  Question is with respect to the Electoral College.  Trump, if he is able to blackmail the Republican Party, will carry the Deep South and lower Midwest up through Iowa & the Dakotas, Ohio & Indiana and Idaho & Montana.  He'll lose Virginia, the Upper East Coast, the West Coast and the Southwest.  Florida is in the bag, with or without DeSantis; with DeSantis, Trump will carry Georgia.

Oh, one thing is for sure if Trump gets the nomination -- no televised Presidential debates.

I'm not altogether sure that Trump would be able to refuse the lure of a televised debate. Because it would be, you know, on television.

Boru

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Let me guess, Yellen is an economist?

Yes, Secretary of the Treasury and former chair of the Federal Reserve.

Yellen's not just smart, she's scary smart. That said, predicting where any economy is going to be a year from now is kind of a mug's game.

'The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.' - John Kenneth Galbraith

Boru