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New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
#11
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
(January 8, 2023 at 9:27 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(January 8, 2023 at 8:25 pm)Jehanne Wrote: Agreed.  I can understand NYC's reluctance to mention the obvious, but going into any building within the 20 to 25 km kill zone of a thermonuclear bomb seems to be pitiless advice.  In addition to the fallout, there is a going to be a firestorm of anything remaining after the initial blast wave, and so, it is going to be impossible for anyone who survives the detonation to remain inside any structure for very long anyways.

The subways or sewers is where people need to go, if they wish to live.

Aside from anything else, the shock wave will follow the path of least resistance and flow along the surface of the ground. Any penetration will only occur under the blast itself, and even so the overcharge will remain largely atmospheric because earth is thicker than air, and energy seeks the easiest outlet.

Penetrator warheads are a thing, but they're not wasted on cities, they're spent on first-strike silos or underground C³I facilities.

The Russians have shown that they have no qualms about attacking and murdering innocent civilians. Any thermonuclear weapons that they would decide to use would almost certainly be denoted 2 to 3 thousand feet above ground. The hypersonic shockwave will be line-of-sight (how could it be otherwise?) which will directly impact buildings from the air but also impact them a second time an instant after reflecting off the ground.

No doubt being on the ground would be an utterly horrible place to be, but being in any building within 10 km of detonation would almost certainly mean that the building one is in is going to collapse or be caught-up in the hellish firestorm that will soon follow.

As a side-note, I have faced some criticism in starting this thread, but I have read interviews of United States government scientists with PhDs in physics working in nuclear weapons research who openly speak of "how fulfilling & meaningful" their work is and "how much they love their jobs". As for me, I think that nuclear weapons are absolutely horrible and should be forever banned by all nations, and would never accept any job supporting them, no matter how much it paid. But, complete nuclear disarmament not yet being "practical" it's good to be prepared if we should be caught-up in the collective insanity of other human beings.

Finally, I think that the NYC emergency management video is not good advice; in my opinion, they should have never made it.
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#12
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
recommending that people in metropolitan area go into sewers or subways is sheer idiocy.  If they have to evacuate, it is reasonable to assume a somewhat unexpected attack is on the way.   In such a scenario the maximum lead time before the warhead strikes is less than 30 minutes.  most likely it would be less than 15-20 minutes.  Optimistically give people 5 minutes to get to entreances to underground sewer and subway,  Typical crowded fast moving escalator can move a maximum of 2000-4000 people an hour,  say 3000 on average, or 750 in 15 minutes,    There are 121 under ground subway station in Manhattan.   Assuming both up and down escalators are used to move people down into subway, and there are on average 2 sets of up and down escalator per subway station, that works the ability to move 363,000 people into the subway in a very well organized 15-20 minute evacuation.   Daytime population of manhattan is 3.5 million. 


So efforts to evacuate large number of people into the sewers or subway will merely result in vast majority of the people trying to do so being caught in the open trying to get past the bottlenecks at the entrances to sewers and subways, and only a small percentage of people actually making it into any under group shelter.

for a general advice to evacuate underground to make sense, it would require most buildings to have basement access into such underground shelter.     if that is not available, sheltering in place seems very likely to be the approach that leads to the most causality reduction possible under the circumstances of an imminent nuckear blast.   certainly sheltering in place is better than milling out in the open trying to get into subway or sewer.


this is a situation where the difference in effect between the best and worst advice possible is not likely to be very large.   but the advice that seeks to attain the best possible steady state which could not be achieved in the available warning time is certain to create a much worse end result than one that only seeks to achieve the least bad steady state possible s within the time available,
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#13
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
(January 8, 2023 at 10:52 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: recommending that people in metropolitan area go into sewers or subways is sheer idiocy.

I have a man-hole right in front of my home in the middle of the street; another is in my alley 300 feet due east. Yet another is half-a-block away due north. Those that are for the storm sewers are quite big with large tubes and quite substantial chambers (where rain water from heavy storms can pool); the ones for sanitation are narrower, but still accessible; most of the water in there is bath water (washing machines, dish washers, bathing), and so, they are not too gross.

I would not stay down there too long. If one survives the initial blast wave, trying to leave the area (no doubt on foot) is going to be incredibly difficult, perhaps even impossible, if only to avoid the firestorm and subsequent radioactive fallout.

Maybe there is simply no solution to this problem. I didn't make the video; I'm just commenting on it. Based upon the comments that have been made here, I would say that few, if any, human beings in major metropolitan cities that are attacked will survive -- those who do not die in the initial blast will die in the firestorm or later on from the fallout.

Maybe their next video should just simply be honest about the true chances of survival, which appear to be virtually nonexistent?
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#14
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
I like the jolly attitude this woman has during this video, especially when she almost bursts into laughter when she said not to hide in the car (where you would fry to death and get irradiated). I guess she was just happy to have nabbed the "acting" gig and that the next role will be in some movie where she will be hailed as the new Maryl Streep. But considering how she pulled this, it is hardly likely.

Surprisingly, she just says to hide in buildings and away from windows, and not in the subway as one would expect. Indeed, I think I would rather choose death than live in the subway with millions of people.
teachings of the Bible are so muddled and self-contradictory that it was possible for Christians to happily burn heretics alive for five long centuries. It was even possible for the most venerated patriarchs of the Church, like St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas, to conclude that heretics should be tortured (Augustine) or killed outright (Aquinas). Martin Luther and John Calvin advocated the wholesale murder of heretics, apostates, Jews, and witches. - Sam Harris, "Letter To A Christian Nation"
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#15
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
I figure the best thing I can do is quote an earlier thread J made on nuclear Holocaust survival:

(February 26, 2022 at 1:21 am)Rev. Rye Wrote: I’ve looked into the facts of nuclear war. The one thing that’s become obvious: try to die before everyone else. To do otherwise will only increase your suffering.

Have you ever watched Threads? If you remember The Day After, picture a version that’s from Britain, is even bleaker, and pretty much all the horrible things that occur are what scientists legit expect will happen after the bomb drops. If you dare to watch it, it’s on Tubi for free.

Admittedly, Hiroshima and Nagasaki bounced back after a couple years but that’s only because the Fat Man and Little Boy bombs were extremely small.
Comparing the Universal Oneness of All Life to Yo Mama since 2010.

[Image: harmlesskitchen.png]

I was born with the gift of laughter and a sense the world is mad.
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#16
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
(January 8, 2023 at 11:28 pm)Jehanne Wrote:
(January 8, 2023 at 10:52 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: recommending that people in metropolitan area go into sewers or subways is sheer idiocy.

I have a man-hole right in front of my home in the middle of the street; another is in my alley 300 feet due east.  Yet another is half-a-block away due north.  Those that are for the storm sewers are quite big with large tubes and quite substantial chambers (where rain water from heavy storms can pool); the ones for sanitation are narrower, but still accessible; most of the water in there is bath water (washing machines, dish washers, bathing), and so, they are not too gross.

I would not stay down there too long.  If one survives the initial blast wave, trying to leave the area (no doubt on foot) is going to be incredibly difficult, perhaps even impossible, if only to avoid the firestorm and subsequent radioactive fallout.

Maybe there is simply no solution to this problem.  I didn't make the video; I'm just commenting on it.  Based upon the comments that have been made here, I would say that few, if any, human beings in major metropolitan cities that are attacked will survive -- those who do not die in the initial blast will die in the firestorm or later on from the fallout.

Maybe their next video should just simply be honest about the true chances of survival, which appear to be virtually nonexistent?

How many people can go down each of these manholes in 15 minutes?
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#17
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
It’s a stupid video. She never even mentioned the Frigidaire Option..

Boru
‘But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods or no gods. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.’ - Thomas Jefferson
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#18
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
(January 9, 2023 at 1:33 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: How many people can go down each of these manholes in 15 minutes?

Probably very few. I just did not care for the blatant dishonesty. As I said in my OP, the video has not been well received. The only solution is prevention. I think that the creators of the video should withdraw and expunge it maybe even with an apology.
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#19
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
Just don't live in NYC.
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#20
RE: New York City's video on how to survive a nuclear attack.
(January 9, 2023 at 8:17 am)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: Just don't live in NYC.

I have never been there; my wife & daughters have been there multiple times. I would love to visit the museum of natural history & planetarium someday, as well as see a Broadway show. I have heard from my wife & oldest daughter that it's a pretty safe place; cops are everywhere.
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