The Noahide Flood

[LinuxGal]

There are good Catholics suffering in hell as we speak because they ate a hot dog at a Yankees game and it was a Lenten Friday.

No there aren't. Do you actually know anything about Catholicism?

A bit.

https://www.vatican.va/content/paul-vi/e...emini.html

I. 1. By divine law all the faithful are required to do penance.
2. The prescriptions of ecclesiastical law regarding penitence are totally reorganized according to the following norms:

II. 1. The time of Lent preserves its penitential character. The days of penitence to be observed under obligation throughout the Church are all Fridays and Ash Wednesday, that is to say the first days of "Grande Quaresima" (Great Lent), according to the diversity of the rites. Their substantial observance binds gravely.

2. Apart from the faculties referred to in VI and VIII regarding the manner of fulfilling the precept of penitence on such days, abstinence is to be observed on every Friday which does not fall on a day of obligation, while abstinence and fast is to be observed on Ash Wednesday or, according to the various practices of the rites, on the first day of "Grande Quaresima" (Great Lent) and on Good Friday.

III. 1. The law of abstinence forbids the use of meat, but not of eggs, the products of milk or condiments made of animal fat.

[Jackalope]

Seems to me the simple calculation would be

(4/3 pi (r + d) ^ 3) - (4/3 pi r ^ 3)

Where r = radius of the earth at sea level and d is the additional depth of the water.

It’s too early for maths.

Boru

What a relief, I'm terrible at it

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Okay, four females and four males on the Ark. 75% presumptively of breeding age. How many kids would the women have to pop out to reach 7,888,000,000 people today? Pick any likely date for the Flood, it will be as accurate as any other.

If you ignore effects of things like limits of ecological carrying capacity, plagues, hereditary diseases made worse by incest, and other mass culling influences, then the reproductive rate required to start with a tiny founder population and fill the earth with writhing humans within a few thousand years is amazingly low, given any reasonable estimate of reproductive age.    If you assume generation gap is 16 years and average life expectancy is 32 years (true for most of human history), then each woman only need to pop out an average of between 2.1 and 2.2 offsprings who go on to reproduce to get you to population of billions of people within 5000 years.

Even with all the limits of ecological carrying capacity, plagues, hereditary diseases made worse by incest, and human sacrifice and other culling influences competing to kill them off,  the native Americans still went from a founder population of at most a few hundred people about 13000 years ago to over 100 million people just before Europeans showed up and killed 95% of them with mostly plague.

(Bold mine)

Isn't ignoring those things kinda, well, stupid? It seems like you would have to take them into account in order for a population prediction to have any validity whatsoever.

I mean, when you included them for the Native Americans, it took 13k years to get to 100 million population. If you include them for the Noahic group, there's no way to get to ~8 billion in 5000 years.

Boru

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Just short answer vs. long answer I think. I think of short answers as the template from which the long answer develops. MiniMax is my nick for that.

Be advised that I suck at pure math, but the concept above was bounced around at lunch one day, Purdue when I was but a lad.

[Anomalocaris]

If you ignore effects of things like limits of ecological carrying capacity, plagues, hereditary diseases made worse by incest, and other mass culling influences, then the reproductive rate required to start with a tiny founder population and fill the earth with writhing humans within a few thousand years is amazingly low, given any reasonable estimate of reproductive age.    If you assume generation gap is 16 years and average life expectancy is 32 years (true for most of human history), then each woman only need to pop out an average of between 2.1 and 2.2 offsprings who go on to reproduce to get you to population of billions of people within 5000 years.

Even with all the limits of ecological carrying capacity, plagues, hereditary diseases made worse by incest, and human sacrifice and other culling influences competing to kill them off,  the native Americans still went from a founder population of at most a few hundred people about 13000 years ago to over 100 million people just before Europeans showed up and killed 95% of them with mostly plague.

(Bold mine)

Isn't ignoring those things kinda, well, stupid? It seems like you would have to take them into account in order for a population prediction to have any validity whatsoever.

I mean, when you included them for the Native Americans, it took 13k years to get to 100 million population. If you include them for the Noahic group, there's no way to get to ~8 billion in 5000 years.

Boru

Realistic ecological carrying capacity concerns will by itself sink any scenario of repopulating the earth after Noachian flood.

 the amount of violent turbulent water flow required to drown the world in 8km of water in 150 days and then drain it away all in  221 days would strip all the drowned land of all soil down to bedrock and more,  the flow rate and turbulence is going to be particularly great in the low lying areas where all the fertile agricultural soil are,   I don’t think the earth would have significant ecological carrying capacity on land to speak off in the aftermath to support any significant human population recovery.     it would take tens to hundreds of thousands of years of weathering, erosion and deposition to restore soil fertility and ecological carrying capacity.

[Anomalocaris]

But it’s worth noting that if you restrict yourself to birthrate concerns, then a small change in birth rate will have a huge impact on how fast an initial population will balloon to a billion people.

Assuming again average age of reproduction is 16 years and avaerage life expectancy is 32 years.   If each woman pop out exactly 2 offspring who goes on to reproduce, The total population will never increase.   If each woman pops out 2.1 offsprings, then you will hit just about 100 million people in 5000 years.    Increase it slightly more to 2.12 and you get 2 billion people in 5000 years.     Make it 2.2 and you will hit a billion in 4,200 years.   Make it 2.5 and you will get a billion in 1700 years.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

How many generations of herbivores before they have a sustainable level for predators, what do they eat until the grazing lands are recovered? What do the predators eat until then?

[Anomalocaris]

Based on the recoveries from previous ecological calamities in earth’s history that were nowhere near as severe as drowning the earth in 8 km of water, such as the Permian extinction event,  it will take tens of millions of years before the global ecosystem return to pre-extinction level of depth and diversity.

After Noachian flood receded,, chances are all the offsprings of all carnivore pairs on the ark would starve and have died out quickly because it takes many suitable herbivore head count to sustain a single carnivore head count.      The result is just one or a few species of large herbivores species will survive and spread around the globe to create a monocultural ecosystem.   It will then take many hundreds of thousand of years for their descendants to speciate and specialize and take advantage of vacant niches.    Some of their descendants will evolve into carnivores to replace the carnivores lost in the immediate aftermath of the initial disaster.    But to fully restore the ecosystem it will tens of millions.

for those who believe in noah and not evolution,   the world after any Noachian flood would be ironically necessarily be the most intense examples of macro evolution in action.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

But it’s worth noting that if you restrict yourself to birthrate concerns, then a small change in birth rate will have a huge impact on how fast an initial population will balloon to a billion people.

Assuming again average age of reproduction is 16 years and avaerage life expectancy is 32 years.   If each woman pop out exactly 2 offspring who goes on to reproduce, The total population will never increase.   If each woman pops out 2.1 offsprings, then you will hit just about 100 million people in 5000 years.    Increase it slightly more to 2.12 and you get 2 billion people in 5000 years.     Make it 2.2 and you will hit a billion in 4,200 years.   Make it 2.5 and you will get a billion in 1700 years.

If you can exclude all factors that limit population size and pick your parameters, you can get any number you like. If we lower the age of reproduction to 12, raise the life expectancy to 40, have each woman give birth to 16 viable offspring, ignore inbreeding, assume no plagues or devastating natural disasters, we can reach a trillion by the end of the century.

And if we follow the Yellow Brick Road, the Great and Powerful Oz will grant us our hearts’ desire.

Boru

[Thumpalumpacus]

Is there any point to this? The Flood didn't happen.