I've just sent a PM to everyone who hasn't yet sent me their Week 2 picks (Tazzycorn I included you as I hadn't seen your message here). Just an FYI, you need to get your weekly picks to me by midnight on Wednesday (that is, Wednesday evening) every week. This is so I can populate them into the spreadsheet before the game starts on Thursday.

If you do not send in picks in time, you'll get a 0 - 16 record for that week, which would be bad if you want a shot at the top spot in the season rankings!

I will dutifully do it for I want to be champeen and will all that glorious pocket lint.

Is a .500 rating a symptom that you're just guessing, or is it really a crapshoot and telling who is going to win each week largely guesswork? I keep thinking that if I only get .500, then I'm probably just guessing. Which is okay at the start of the season, but I was around .500 at the end of last year's season. What is wrong with me?

Tibs, I sent you my picks

(September 13, 2016 at 4:02 pm)Tiberius Wrote:

(September 13, 2016 at 3:33 pm)Tazzycorn Wrote: Going over my picks, I'm making my record for week one 10-6. And I can't see where I'd be wrong with that count.

Your picks, going from your PM, were:

Broncos (W)
Falcons (L)
Titans (L)
Eagles (W)
Jets (L)
Raiders (W)
Chargers (L)
Ravens (W)
Bears (L)
Packers (W)
Seahawks (W)
Giants (W)
Lions (W)
Cardinals (L)
Steelers (W)
Rams (L)

That's 9 wins and 7 losses by my count. Unless I got one of your picks wrong, but I just went through them and I can't see which one?

I knew it. I somehow counted the Falcons as a win for me. That's what you get for looking up results waaaaaay past your bedtime. Sorry for that.

(September 14, 2016 at 1:51 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote: Is a .500 rating a symptom that you're just guessing, or is it really a crapshoot and telling who is going to win each week largely guesswork?  I keep thinking that if I only get .500, then I'm probably just guessing.  Which is okay at the start of the season, but I was around .500 at the end of last year's season.  What is wrong with me?

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.

I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.

For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

(September 14, 2016 at 4:35 pm)Crossless1 Wrote:

(September 14, 2016 at 1:51 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote: Is a .500 rating a symptom that you're just guessing, or is it really a crapshoot and telling who is going to win each week largely guesswork?  I keep thinking that if I only get .500, then I'm probably just guessing.  Which is okay at the start of the season, but I was around .500 at the end of last year's season.  What is wrong with me?

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.

I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.

For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.

(September 14, 2016 at 5:35 pm)The Gentleman Bastard Wrote:

(September 14, 2016 at 4:35 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.

I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.

For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.

Arrrrggggg...... This is just for fun. If you look at the winners and losers over the period of the season as far as picks, and I noticed this last year too, it will fluctuate and you will have good weeks and bad weeks. And even with the spread, especially with rival division games, you cannot treat "the spread" as gospel. If you pick for fun, and you have a relative idea of which teams have done well on average long term over multiple seasons you will still miss, but you will do better. "The spread" is overrated to me. 


Washington is the only team I will pick all 16 games, yea it's unrealistic, but I am a fan. Outside that, I simply judge long term looking into the past and consider division rivalries and home and away.

(September 14, 2016 at 5:35 pm)The Gentleman Bastard Wrote:

(September 14, 2016 at 4:35 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.

I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.

For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.

Right. But the percentage of outright wins for favorites covering the various spreads is helpful in determining the likelihood of those same teams winning by any margin. It's all rough and ready, anyway, and was offered simply as food for thought. Vegas odds-makers obviously aren't the last word. As they say, "That's why they play the game."

(September 15, 2016 at 8:41 am)Crossless1 Wrote:

(September 14, 2016 at 5:35 pm)The Gentleman Bastard Wrote: That article is about the teams covering the spread, not necessarily winning outright.

Right. But the percentage of outright wins for favorites covering the various spreads is helpful in determining the likelihood of those same teams winning by any margin. It's all rough and ready, anyway, and was offered simply as food for thought. Vegas odds-makers obviously aren't the last word. As they say, "That's why they play the game."

If people think it is more fun to get into more detail there is a AF fantasy league thread. I chose this mere win/lose pick em because I have long since accepted the crapshoot it can be. Last year if you look just at my rankings from week to week I was at the top and middle and bottom depending on week. 

I am not trying to win in any serious sense, but just in a "neener neener" friendly way. Can we all simply have fun without making this too deep? Don't make me post an ABBA video.