(November 4, 2016 at 12:04 am)Irrational Wrote:

(November 3, 2016 at 9:17 pm)Catholic_Lady Wrote: Everything has been addressed already. I don't have anything to say that hasn't already been said. I can just keep repeating myself, or I can talk about farts. The latter is more fun.

No, not everything. There are still a couple of original points you haven't addressed at all throughout this thread. And a few other points as well in the link I provided.

The only thing I can think of that I have not addressed was the part of Poca's conspiracy theory assertion that perhaps someone was able to predict the weather for that day and saw that the sun would do something extraordinary, and told the children to say the Virgin Mary would perform a miracle. 

The thing with that theory is that the children's claim that Mary would do something on October 13 at noon came 3 months before it happened. No way to predict the "weather" (if you even want to attribute the sun changing colors, zig zagging through the sky, and drying up clothes in seconds to the "weather") 3 months ahead of time. Especially back in 1917.

...But the reason I didn't address it is because I don't want to beat a dead horse. I've already stated my reasons for why I think it's convincing and that is not because of one detail or the other in isolation, but because of the compilation of the whole thing put together in context.

A true skeptic is never going to believe. They are always going to claim mass hallucination or whatever else no matter WHAT happens, and that's fine. I'm not trying to argue here.

(November 4, 2016 at 9:39 am)Catholic_Lady Wrote:

(November 4, 2016 at 12:04 am)Irrational Wrote: No, not everything. There are still a couple of original points you haven't addressed at all throughout this thread. And a few other points as well in the link I provided.

The only thing I can think of that I have not addressed was the part of Poca's conspiracy theory assertion that perhaps someone was able to predict the weather for that day and saw that the sun would do something extraordinary, and told the children to say the Virgin Mary would perform a miracle. 

The thing with that theory is that the children's claim that Mary would do something on October 13 at noon came 3 months before it happened. No way to predict the "weather" (if you even want to attribute the sun changing colors, zig zagging through the sky, and drying up clothes in seconds to the "weather") 3 months ahead of time. Especially back in 1917.

Ok, but as multiple suggestions have shown, the "weather" need not be so remarkable that it could've only happened on that one specific day. People flocking to that area needed only to be preconditioned to see the expected "miracle", since the experience of the "miracle" depended on exactly that (judging from the fact that not everyone there actually saw the sun dancing around in a pinwheel fashion or whatever). In other words, they could've experienced the "miracle" on any other day and time as long as they were told what to expect and so long as the circumstances were adequate for such psychological phenomena to occur (as much as you disagree, hysteria is playing a big part here).

In addition, these accounts may have been exaggerated as well to make it sound more remarkable than it actually was. People do this all the time when telling stories so it's not an implausible thing for them to do. For example, you said their clothes were dried up in seconds. This, to me, could have easily been an exaggeration.

double post

Can I posit a scenario?

Indoctrinated little girl with a reputation for being fanciful one day says to her young cousin 'I'm special, I saw the Virgin Mary. Young cousin, not wanting to be left out replies 'I saw her too...' 'Oh yeah? Then what did she say?' 'Ummm, well I saw her but didn't hear what she said. What did she say?' 'Ha, loser. She told me three secrets' 'Aw, tell me' 'No' 'Buuuut, but but but pleaaaaase' 'Look, I'm not gonna tell you the secrets, but she did say there was gonna be a miracle' 'Oooh, when?' 'Ummmm [inserts random date].'

Children tell priest, it gets picked up by local rag, then the nationals.

Little girl does not want to be caught out in a lie with so much national interest so insists on sticking to her story.

Date rolls along, thousands descend on small town in expectation of miracle. Time rolls by with no miracle. Girl panics, plans on diverting attention away from her so she can say she saw a miracle while people were looking elsewhere, sees sun breaking through clouds, points and screams for people to look at the sun and gets ready to claim she saw a miracle, but to her amazement everyone around her is staring at the sun, having mistaken normal occular effects of bright sunlight as an apparition. Girl no longer has to make up story.

Catholic priest with in no way a vested interest in confirming a miracle interviews indoctrinated people who would in no way be suggestible to the authority of a priest and finds remarkable similarities in the accounts, non priest interviews people and find wildly varying accounts.

Catholic church and religious press with no vested interest run with the priests findings and bing bang bong, certified miracle.

But what of the young girl and her 'secrets'? Well, she reveals two, which predict things that have by that stage already happened and a third, to be revealed at a much later date, that is pretty unremarkable.

Do I have any evidence that it went down like that? Ofcourse not, but it is still a gazillion times more likely than goddidit.


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(November 4, 2016 at 9:39 am)Catholic_Lady Wrote: The only thing I can think of that I have not addressed was the part of Poca's conspiracy theory assertion that perhaps someone was able to predict the weather for that day and saw that the sun would do something extraordinary, and told the children to say the Virgin Mary would perform a miracle. 

Or did they predict it? How's that proven and by whom? We only have the word of religious people for that. What exactly did they allegedly claim to happen and what did the people really see or believed to see? We only have grainy pictures that reveal nothing out of the ordinary as far as the sky is concerned.

You know, these aren't exactly new miracle stories. One from the top of my head is the battle of Antioch during the first crusade where thousands of soldiers swore that their fallen comrades led the charge as a sort of ghost army. Also following a prediction made by their priests.

The naked facts are - Fatima was the literal ass of the world before the happenings of 1917. Now it's a thriving community because of that. There are thousands of similar stories. Some tied to supposed relics, some to miracles.

You see how things like that work? Rural Portugal hadn't moved much forward in terms of credultiy since the middle Ages. But a few well placed stories could give it a well needed boost.

Anybody who's ever studied urban legends know how easily fanciful stories get passed around, always with the "this really happened!" admonishment. You know how people like to add their own embellishments, but they swear up & down that it's a true story.

Case in point, a coworker once told me that a friend of his bought a beat up Harley Davidson motorcycle from someone for a low price, got it home and after lifting up the seat found an inscription saying that it was a special motorcycle built just for Elvis. Guy calls Graceland to confirm it and they immediately send a truck and a guy with something like half a million dollars.

Many years later I find out that it's a popular urban legend which has spread all over the place: http://www.snopes.com/autos/dream/elvis.asp

The thing is that you just can't trust secondhand eyewitness accounts, especially of something which happened 100 years ago.

On September 8, 1888, 47-year-old Annie Chapman became the second of Jack the Ripper's canonical victims. The official police list of her possessions, reproduced in the press, included mention of three recently-acquired brass rings missing from her middle finger. The tale grew with the telling; exaggerations and embellishments crept in. First the rings were said to have been placed carefully next to her body; before long, that had become a pile of rings and coins at her feet.

People exaggerate. People lie. All the time. They probably don't even realise they're doing it.

I have had (minor) arguments with mi sister over over events from our childhood, which she remembers happening one way and I another - despite the fact that we were both there at the time.

(November 4, 2016 at 3:01 pm)Stimbo Wrote: I have had (minor) arguments with mi sister over over events from our childhood, which she remembers happening one way and I another - despite the fact that we were both there at the time.

Trivial as that may sound. I always fondly remembered the Morris Minor my father's stores used for deliveries in the 60ies. Couple of years back I talked about it to my brother, who's 15 years my senior. Turns out my father never had one. It was a different car entirely.

(November 4, 2016 at 9:45 am)Catholic_Lady Wrote: ...But the reason I didn't address it is because I don't want to beat a dead horse. I've already stated my reasons for why I think it's convincing and that is not because of one detail or the other in isolation, but because of the compilation of the whole thing put together in context.

A true skeptic is never going to believe. They are always going to claim mass hallucination or whatever else no matter WHAT happens, and that's fine. I'm not trying to argue here.

You act like Fatima was the only "sun miracle"; it wasn't.  Even Pope Pius XII claimed to have it seen from the Vatican gardens.