I'm getting the feeling that the dynamics of the Dem primary are increasingly favoring Biden. Victor Davis Hanson, a conservative option writer, makes a pretty convincing case that this is so, drawing comparisons to the nomination of the "safe' John Kerry to try to defeat the "must defeat" George W Bush (ref. https://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/wi...democrats/).

There is no real option for a moderate candidate than Biden. Harris's support from African American primary votes has gone from 27% to 1% ! Regardless of the race of the candidate, no Dem can be the nominee without support from the African American voting base. That leave only the liberal wing of the party, primarily Warren and Sanders, to split the liberal half of the vote. Unless Sanders or Warren drops out early, this sets up Biden for the win.

(August 8, 2019 at 10:39 pm)BryanS Wrote: That leaves only the liberal wing of the party, primarily Warren and Sanders, to split the liberal half of the vote. Unless Sanders or Warren drops out early, this sets up Biden for the win.

You just convinced me that my assessment of Biden's chances was wrong.

No one should be shocked when a party that is over 50% moderates goes for the moderate. Yet millions will think the election was rigged if anyone but their favorite progressive wins. The Democratic Party is becoming more progressive, but it just isn't there yet. If someone besides Biden wins the Democratic Primary, I'll be happy to vote for them in the general election, I wish I could be confident that enough progressives will do the same if Biden gets the nomination.

(August 9, 2019 at 8:43 am)Alan V Wrote:

(August 8, 2019 at 10:39 pm)BryanS Wrote: That leaves only the liberal wing of the party, primarily Warren and Sanders, to split the liberal half of the vote. Unless Sanders or Warren drops out early, this sets up Biden for the win.

You just convinced me that my assessment of Biden's chances was wrong.

Tulsi Gabbard's attack on Harris was brutally effective. It's been compared to Chris Christie's takedown of Marco Rubio in the last cycle's GOP primary--someone without a chance for the nomination took out a contender. Until polling came out after that debate, Harris was in the running, and had a chance of taking out Biden as you proposed upthread. But if Harris was going to implode like this with African American voters, it's better to find that out now than after she has the nomination. She should have known this attack was coming. That she was not prepared or able to defend herself from this attack means Harris was not ready.

That was always Gabbard’s purpose in the debates, to launder conservative talking points.

It doesn’t matter that they were fact free, since...as you noted, she wasn’t prepared to respond to them.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if Harris lasts much longer. I really like Tulsi now, and she might be my second pick below Bernie. I'm glad we have people like this trying to pull the democrats left. Because if they're going to try their hardest to keep a third party from becoming viable, the next best thing is to force the dem party to the left.

(August 9, 2019 at 9:59 am)Mister Agenda Wrote: No one should be shocked when a party that is over 50% moderates goes for the moderate. Yet millions will think the election was rigged if anyone but their favorite progressive wins. The Democratic Party is becoming more progressive, but it just isn't there yet. If someone besides Biden wins the Democratic Primary, I'll be happy to vote for them in the general election, I wish I could be confident that enough progressives will do the same if Biden gets the nomination.

The correct political strategy in this situation is for Warren and Sanders to go after each other as brutally as they can to try to knock the other out. Biden can just float above it all and be the elder party statesman. There will still be some also-rans in this coming debate, so the dynamics are not all set in stone just yet. And a surprisingly strong performance in Iowa + New Hampshire for Bernie or Warren could knock the other out early as well, making the race more competitive for Biden. 

The deal to be made here is for Biden and Warren to team up. She's the obvious VP candidate if Biden wants to put political factions of the party together. Hillary's VP choice was uninspiring and boring, and worse, did not unite party factions in the way Trump's choice of a social conservative did. Biden can learn from Hillary's mistakes.

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(August 9, 2019 at 12:22 pm)Gae Bolga Wrote: That was always Gabbard’s purpose in the debates, to launder conservative talking points.

It doesn’t matter that they were fact free, since...as you noted, she wasn’t prepared to respond to them.

That's a good one. Gabbard is a lot more liberal than Biden. What fact checks were done of Gabbard showed that not only was she 100% accurate, she was actually cautious in understating the full extent of the problem with Harris. But nomatter now, since we all agree Harris is toast. 

I've read speculation that this was a tag team between Biden and Gabbard--that she has connections to him and possibly this was meant as a one-two punch. Biden lead with this attack, but was mealy mouthed and ineffective. Gabbard immediately pounced right after Biden with the exact same line of attack, but more effectively. That's what VPs do...several remaining candidates could really only be staying in to try to be VP.

Oh I agree, she’s more liberal than Biden, but she’s also driving progressivism rightward.

What gave you the idea that the fact checks showed her line of attack was 100% accurate?

The problem with Harris, was how easy it was to exploit the “Kamalas a cop” narrative.

(August 9, 2019 at 12:30 pm)BryanS Wrote: Hillary's VP choice was uninspiring and boring, and worse, did not unite party factions in the way Trump's choice of a social conservative did. Biden can learn from Hillary's mistakes.

If he's nominated, Biden will almost inevitably pick a woman for veep, since so many qualified women are running this time. Even if she's another moderate Democrat, such a person should help him considerably.

(August 3, 2019 at 6:44 pm)Grandizer Wrote: Hate to say it but if nothing he says or do short of some extreme scandal will have him drop badly in polls, Biden is winning the nomination no matter what non-Biden supporters hope or think.

Oh and a lot of Bernie supporters on the Bernie Reddit are delusional as fuck. People aren't going to eventually magically gravitate to Bernie in large numbers, since he already has high name recognition and is doing relatively poorly in the polls inspire of that. People who are still shopping around looking for the right candidate don't want Bernie.

It's amazing to see that the party with so many of its candidates villainizing "old white men" has two of them at the top of the polls.  I think the other candidates should take heed of this.