(January 10, 2025 at 3:49 pm)Nay_Sayer Wrote:

(January 10, 2025 at 3:16 pm)Jamie Smithie Wrote: Everyone knows that crime is rising in the UK and why.

I don't.

Why is it rising? Be specific

Nor do I, and I would also find it very edifying to know why he thinks this?

If it's not Elon Musk, I'd guess he's got it from the Daily Mail.

(January 10, 2025 at 3:49 pm)Nay_Sayer Wrote:

(January 10, 2025 at 3:16 pm)Jamie Smithie Wrote: Everyone knows that crime is rising in the UK and why.

I don't.

Why is it rising? Be specific

In some shitty Polish poem (Dziady)* main character almost call god "a Tsar" but is saved from blasphemy by devil who utters it in his place. So I'll play a devil here and say what new dude want but is too shy - muslims. Also statistics that Sheldon provided are obviously nothing more than leftist conspiracy.

*https://literat.ug.edu.pl/dziadypo/0003.htm

(January 10, 2025 at 3:53 pm)Sheldon Wrote:

(January 10, 2025 at 3:49 pm)Nay_Sayer Wrote: I don't.

Why is it rising? Be specific

Nor do I, and I would also find it very edifying to know why he thinks this?

If it's not Elon Musk, I'd guess he's got it from the Daily Mail.

It's likely from a variety of sources. Racists like Jammy love to cherry-pick

(January 10, 2025 at 3:56 pm)Ivan Denisovich Wrote:

(January 10, 2025 at 3:49 pm)Nay_Sayer Wrote: I don't.

Why is it rising? Be specific

In some shitty Polish poem (Dziady)* main character almost call god "a Tsar" but is saved from blasphemy by devil who utters it in his place. So I'll play a devil here and say what new dude want but is too shy - muslims. Also statistics that Sheldon provided are obviously nothing more than leftist conspiracy.  

*https://literat.ug.edu.pl/dziadypo/0003.htm

If he wasn't so inept that is actually some low hanging fruit he could use for lazy stereotyping. Muslims are overrepresented in the prison population in the UK, though of course he won't care why, as he "knows" this already. 

It's pretty obvious that Smithie doesn't do nuanced thinking, to be fair I've not seen much evidence of thinking at all in his posts.

I feel like it's safe to assume that a rise in crime is caused by a rise in want? In relative poverty. In a lean period..with little chance for upward mobility...and high costs of living?

People steal for what they want, not what they have. Violence as a commodified good.

Crime statistics is just a political game for election and re-election.

(January 10, 2025 at 7:18 pm)Silver Wrote: Crime statistics is just a political game for election and re-election.

In the UK politicians use such stats when they think them to their advantage, ignore them when they are not, otherwise they lie about them, using rhetoric, like the thread author. I'd like to say their lies are seldom as blatant as the thread authors, but sadly this is not always the case.

(January 10, 2025 at 10:35 am)Jamie Smithie Wrote: It says the video is unavailable. 

Oops, sorry. It should have occurred to me that a lot of these British productions remain under copyright in Britain, but are free to watch here in Japan. 

The point made in the documentary is just that there are a lot of repeat offenders in the UK who truly don't care about breaking the law, yet their punishments are very light. Granted, the filmmakers may have had an ax to grind. If so, they certainly chose the most effectively disgusting people to make their point. God those people are terrible. 

Quote:Never mind, anyway the whole ASBO thing is from quite a long time ago, I'm well aware of it. Yes most of them were white back then.

I suppose what we need here are reliable statistics, not influenced by political goals. So for example if we assume that the percentage of white people with ASBOs are more or less the same, and that recent immigration has increased the percentage of non-white people in the UK, then it would make sense that the rise in crime would be attributable to non-whites. The higher the percentage, the higher the percentage of nasty people. 

But we'd also have to know what percentage of non-whites do crime, and a number of other variables. 

It's best to remain skeptical of official numbers, I think, so it's hard to know for sure. 

For example the Crime Survey for England and Wales is the most accurate report on crime statistic -- according to the people who make the survey. And it's a self-reported survey, where they send out questionnaires and get back maybe 40 to 60 percent. 

The danger is that it's easy to be skeptical of numbers we don't like, and easy to switch off that skepticism when we find a number that suits us. 

I guess you still aren't allowed to do links on this forum, but if you can name some sources for me to Google I'd be happy to look at those. Unfortunately this has gone from a simple data collection issue to a very ideological one on both sides, so just about anything they say should be taken with giant-sized pinches of salt.

(January 10, 2025 at 7:19 am)Jamie Smithie Wrote: There has been a dramatic rise in crime in the UK in recent years, as well as in other countries. What could be the cause of this? There was a time when stabbings and acid attacks and other crimes were rare, but it seems that nowadays it's a case of another day another stabbing. 

Whether it's "urban youths" (strange term, don't you think?) stealing phones, or individuals behaving in an aggressive, erratic way, there's always something in the news every day. It's also very worrying how many individuals these days are walking around wearing balaclavas. 

It never used to be like this. I wonder what might have given rise to all this crime and violence.

Is there? Because according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales, it's actually gone down pretty dramatically since the early-to-mid-Nineties or so.


IF you want to sift through the raw data, go here
If you want something that's more of a thought piece into why people believe crime has risen in recent years, specifically in the UK, go here.

So your attempt to blame "urban youth" for this dramatic rise in crime in the UK has failed because, frankly, there is no dramatic rise in crime in the UK. Ergo, a falsis principiis proficisci.

(January 10, 2025 at 7:18 pm)Silver Wrote: Crime statistics is just a political game for election and re-election.

Unfortunately that's true. 

I remember several years ago the Japanese government announced with great fanfare that the number of road traffic deaths had fallen dramatically. This was touted as a great success, and reported in headline news. 

Then about a week later an independent journalist with quite a small readership discovered that the government had simply changed its method of counting. Previously any traffic-caused injury resulting in death had been counted. But they changed it so that the death had to occur within 24 hours of the accident. And since of course people with no chance of survival can be kept "alive" indefinitely if they're hooked to machines, it's easy to keep some of the victims alive for 24 hours and ten minutes, so that they're not included in the statistics. 

Pretty sneaky, but probably not unusual, with crime statistics as well.