(March 11, 2016 at 2:45 pm)Rhythm Wrote: Gee.....you seem to have identified a problem with your use of the equation, in your haphazard high/low scheme... haven't you? I am, however, doing math. Zero, times zero....over zero...equals zero. It just didn't end with "therefore miracle"...so you're understandably salty about that. Could have been avoided, you had ample opportunity.
Now, is this enough for you to acknowledge that you do not -possess- an argument from probability,or would you like to further investigate the problems that would remain if you could actually manage to overcome that obstacle?
I do not concede anything. You are not doing math. Rather than assigning a low probability to a supernatural event, you assign zero--making a philosophical statement that there are only natural causes--something you cannot prove. What probability theorists came to realize is that you must not only consider how probable the event is relative to our background knowledge of the world, but you must also consider how probable would the evidence be if the event had not occurred? The formula serves to compare those two things.
