You Can't Disprove a Miracle

[drfuzzy]

More relevant and interesting than any Jeebus myth:

"The posterior probability of a hypothesis is determined by a combination of the inherent likeliness of a hypothesis (the prior) and the compatibility of the observed evidence with the hypothesis (the likelihood)."

You can run the formula for each hypothesis (H) and compare.Let's do the resurrection of Harry:

                    P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
                          P(E)

H = Hypothesis, Harry was revived by the Resurrection Stone
E = Harry returns to Hogwarts

P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that The Resurrection Stone can raise the dead = .90
P(H) - probability that Harry can get back to Hogwarts before Voldemort observes E = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (zombified?) = .05

             .9 x .01
18% = ----------------
               .05

Fixed that for you. You just need better literature than that hideous wholly babble, that's all.