You Can't Disprove a Miracle

[SteveII]

There is no x on both sides of the equation. Just because you've been repeating yourself over and over does not make it so either.

I've pointed it out to you repeatedly.  The value you have set at 90% (previously "high") is a value for the probability of a miracle.  In -your- words, "jesus heals".  You see, I didn't make it so,  you did....repeatedly.

Would you like to change that?  Not the value, I mean...it doesn;t matter what you set the value at.  You'll need to change your definition of the variable.

Sorry if the earlier effort was not clear. 

The 90% value P(E/H) is not the probability of a miracle. It is the probability that we would see E if H were true.


                    P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
                          P(E)

H = Hypothesis, man was healed by Jesus
E = man walks, including timing and context

P(H/E) - probability of H given E
P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that Jesus can heal = .90
P(H) - probability that Jesus can heal cripple before E was observed = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (call it "natural causes") = .05

             .9 x .01
18% = ----------------
               .05