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You Can't Disprove a Miracle
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle
SteveII Wrote:
Jörmungandr Wrote:You're still arguing that low probability events equal miracles.  No they don't.  Low probability events equal low probability events.  The probability cannot demonstrate that it has a supernatural cause, only evidence of an actual supernatural cause can do that.  Eyewitness accounts to unexplained events, even if held to be reliable, even given certain context, do not show the supernatural.

Click here for a Wikipedia article on Bayesian inference and probability theory.  Probability theory says that you not just assess the probability of an event and make your conclusion, but you must update that probability given any new evidence, information or conditions (timing, context, etc.). 

"The posterior probability of a hypothesis is determined by a combination of the inherent likeliness of a hypothesis (the prior) and the compatibility of the observed evidence with the hypothesis (the likelihood)."

You can run the formula for each hypothesis (H) and compare.Let's do the crippled man:

                    P(E/H) x P(H)
P(H/E) = ------------------------------
                          P(E)

H = Hypothesis, man was healed by Jesus
E = man walks, including timing and context

P(E/H) - probability of E given the hypothesis that Jesus can heal = .90
P(H) - probability that Jesus can heal cripple before E was observed = .01
P(E) - likelihood that E happened without H (call it "natural causes") = .05

             .9 x .01
18% = ----------------
               .05

Bayesian logic also tells us to use what we already know to evaluate the probability of a claim being true and evaluate the quality of evidence that would be sufficient to overcome a claim that contradicts what we already know.

If I say I tied my shoes this morning, you should believe me, or at least not make an argument out of it. You know that shoes exist. You know that shoelaces exist. You know that tying shoes is possible. Lots of people tie shoes. I have nothing to gain by lying about it. You have nothing to lose by believing me.

If I say I resurrected a woman who had been dead for three days this morning, the calculation is completely different, and having an eyewitness doesn't improve it much. We don't know that the woman was really dead. We don't know that bringing someone back from the dead past clinical death is possible. We do know it would involve undoing three days of decomposition, which would be the most complicated task humankind has ever undertaken. We don't know that weird powers that would let someone do this exist or if they are even possible. If I can get people to do this (believe my claim), I have a great future as a cult leader (so I have a lot to gain). If you believe it and it's not true, you've followed a false miracle. We do know that people will lie for attention and we do know people can be delusional.

My claim about resurrecting the dead woman needs a little more than a dude who can vouch for me. before it becomes reasonable to accept it as true
I'm not anti-Christian. I'm anti-stupid.
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Messages In This Thread
You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Rhondazvous - March 8, 2016 at 10:49 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 8, 2016 at 10:58 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Joods - March 8, 2016 at 12:46 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Jenny A - March 8, 2016 at 1:32 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 10, 2016 at 11:54 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Joods - March 10, 2016 at 1:49 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Brian37 - March 10, 2016 at 1:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Minimalist - March 8, 2016 at 11:32 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by vorlon13 - March 8, 2016 at 11:39 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by abaris - March 8, 2016 at 12:16 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Rhondazvous - March 10, 2016 at 9:01 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Ivan Denisovich - March 8, 2016 at 2:26 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Joods - March 8, 2016 at 4:04 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Brian37 - March 8, 2016 at 4:19 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Old Baby - March 8, 2016 at 4:45 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by FebruaryOfReason - March 8, 2016 at 4:50 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by brewer - March 8, 2016 at 4:46 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Crossless1 - March 8, 2016 at 5:41 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Brian37 - March 8, 2016 at 5:48 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Crossless1 - March 8, 2016 at 5:56 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Brian37 - March 8, 2016 at 6:00 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by BrianSoddingBoru4 - March 8, 2016 at 6:43 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 10, 2016 at 11:58 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by BrianSoddingBoru4 - March 8, 2016 at 6:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 10, 2016 at 12:28 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 10, 2016 at 12:56 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by abaris - March 10, 2016 at 12:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 10, 2016 at 12:58 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by abaris - March 10, 2016 at 1:23 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 10, 2016 at 1:01 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Old Baby - March 10, 2016 at 1:02 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Divinity - March 10, 2016 at 1:27 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 11:09 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 11:17 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 12:13 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Mister Agenda - March 11, 2016 at 12:26 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 11, 2016 at 11:19 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 12:41 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Old Baby - March 11, 2016 at 12:46 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 1:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 11, 2016 at 3:32 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 3:57 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 11, 2016 at 3:23 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Rhondazvous - March 12, 2016 at 7:18 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Mister Agenda - March 11, 2016 at 12:10 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 12:21 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 11, 2016 at 12:35 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 12:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 1:44 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 1:49 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 1:52 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 1:58 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 2:04 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 2:17 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by IATIA - March 12, 2016 at 1:38 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 2:22 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 2:40 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Rhondazvous - March 12, 2016 at 6:56 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 2:45 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 3:46 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 4:12 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 11, 2016 at 5:15 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 11, 2016 at 5:33 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by ignoramus - March 12, 2016 at 6:56 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Drich - March 14, 2016 at 12:55 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 12, 2016 at 12:50 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by little_monkey - March 12, 2016 at 1:28 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by IATIA - March 12, 2016 at 1:18 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 12, 2016 at 1:43 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 14, 2016 at 8:48 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 14, 2016 at 10:10 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 14, 2016 at 11:47 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 12, 2016 at 1:48 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 14, 2016 at 9:12 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by little_monkey - March 14, 2016 at 9:28 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 14, 2016 at 11:40 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 14, 2016 at 1:28 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by ignoramus - March 14, 2016 at 8:21 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 8:21 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by little_monkey - March 15, 2016 at 11:20 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 14, 2016 at 6:03 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 14, 2016 at 6:17 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by KevinM1 - March 14, 2016 at 6:21 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 14, 2016 at 7:14 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 4:02 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 10:03 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 6:19 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 10:32 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 9:46 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 10:21 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Expired - March 15, 2016 at 10:30 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 10:31 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 10:36 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 10:53 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Expired - March 15, 2016 at 10:42 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 10:44 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 11:21 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Mister Agenda - March 15, 2016 at 11:27 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 10:48 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 10:52 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 10:57 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 11:25 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 11:28 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 11:29 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 11:39 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 12:01 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Angrboda - March 15, 2016 at 12:19 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 1:47 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 1:51 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Mister Agenda - March 16, 2016 at 9:49 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 12:01 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 12:04 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 1:56 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 2:03 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Divinity - March 15, 2016 at 12:25 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 12:32 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 1:55 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 2:04 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 2:20 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 2:07 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 2:08 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 15, 2016 at 2:41 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 3:10 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 2:42 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Mister Agenda - March 16, 2016 at 10:04 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 15, 2016 at 2:56 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 3:08 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 3:16 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 3:12 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 3:35 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 4:37 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 4:38 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 4:49 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by drfuzzy - March 15, 2016 at 4:46 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Valkyrie - March 15, 2016 at 4:59 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 5:03 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 15, 2016 at 5:19 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by IATIA - March 15, 2016 at 7:10 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Expired - March 16, 2016 at 5:36 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 5:21 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 15, 2016 at 5:36 pm
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by SteveII - March 16, 2016 at 8:28 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 16, 2016 at 5:12 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by ignoramus - March 16, 2016 at 7:23 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 16, 2016 at 8:43 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 16, 2016 at 8:50 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by The Grand Nudger - March 16, 2016 at 9:03 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 16, 2016 at 9:26 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 16, 2016 at 9:56 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 16, 2016 at 10:01 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 16, 2016 at 10:05 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 16, 2016 at 10:12 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by KevinM1 - March 17, 2016 at 2:59 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by ignoramus - March 17, 2016 at 4:08 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by robvalue - March 18, 2016 at 8:34 am
RE: You Can't Disprove a Miracle - by Cyberman - March 18, 2016 at 11:05 am

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