Dr. Craig is a liar.

[robvalue]

I would love to see a credible citation that states "The probability that our reality began to exist is above 50%".

I would be very surprised. But I'm always happy to be corrected. As far as I know, no one is in a position to perform such a calculation with any accuracy. Even if it did begin to exist, just announcing that it must have "a cause" is speculation too, however you're using the word. It's a word that can mean many things. No one knows. I find it astonishing how people think they know more than the expert scientists who study this stuff for a living. Again, trying to apply observations within our reality to reality itself is the fallacy of composition. Some people just don't seem to care about this. Entities do not necessarily adopt all the qualities of their contents or component parts.

Cosmological rubbish garbage nonsense fuck-brigade bastards. It's so totally broken and pointless. Even if you grant the whole thing, it's of no consequence. An "uncaused cause" could be almost anything. At the very best, the whole thing is a tautology of definition based on speculative premises. Well done.

Also, I'm sick of people saying, "God created the universe". If the universe is everything that exists, then either God created himself or God doesn't exist. If the universe isn't everything that exists, and there's a bit of other stuff too, then continuing with this language to imply "god made everything" is an equivocation. This is why I prefer to say "Our reality". It allows for there to be other things to exist, or not, whatever the case may be.