Can Trump Win....

[Jenny A]

Yes, those states are the crucial states because they are swing states. Romney lost the election because  he lost them.  Trump is set to lose them.  AND if he loses them it will cost him the election.  

Texas won't be in play 2016, but give them another four years and they will be.

Buy a clue.

Colorado has 9 votes, Nevada 6, New Mexico 5, and Florida 29 for a total of 49 votes.  Romney got 206 votes.   The additional 49 from those four States would have given him 255 total.  He would still have lost the election.   Remember, Romney won two more States than McCain.  So those States could have an additional 100 million Dem voters among them in November and it won't matter because their number of electoral votes won't increase until after the next census.  

Trump doesn't need the hispanic vote to win and it's silly and a waste of time for him to cater to it.  He needs to go after Virginia 13, New Jersey 14, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10, Ohio 18, New York 29, Pennsylvania 20.  If he wins all of those and the 206 votes Romney got he will top out at 326, a major win.  If he doesn't carry New York and Pennsylvania he could still get 277 votes with the others.  He will win by 7.  So Trump could win without Florida and the other States that have sizable hispanic voting blocs.  That's why national polls are BS and irrelevant and a waste of money.  If the Dems turn against Hillary in those few States she can continue to get rich by fluffing the Wall Streeters because she won't become President.

You think Trump has a shot at New York. That's silly. It isn't a swing state. It's blue as blue can be. That Trump overwhelming took the very few republicans in it means nothing. The vast majority of its voters are democrat and will vote that way. Clinton cleaned up there. Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania (perhaps), New Hampshire (perhaps) might go red but not all of them will. That's not enough. And Trump might actually make red as red as red can be Utah vote democrat. They really don't like him there. For a republican that kind of dislike in Utah is hard to achieve.

You are right that state polls not national ones matter. But Trump fares worse with the electorial college than nationally. He needs Florida and he's already lost it. He's Goldwater all over again.

There is one national demographic that does matter, women. We, and I do mean we, don't just not like him, it's visceral. I don't like H Clinton but to avoid Trump, I'll vote for her. And there are more female than male voters.