WikiLeaks publishes searchable database of almost 20,000 emails from DNC.

[henryp]

As much as it shows how unlikable Clinton is, national polls are still a terrible indicator of how the election will turn out. FiveThirtyEight still put her chances at 58.2%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...cast/#plus

That number will probably jump later this week when she is official confirmed as the nominee. It will then likely fall as a result of the leaked emails. documents, etc. I suspect it may jump back up when the debates start; somehow I can't see Trump holding his own against Clinton in a debate.

Polls plus factors in historical trends.  The expectation, is that the polls plus number will stay the same until election day, as it supposedly considers things such as conventions, debates, etc... 

The "Now cast" which is if the elections were held today has her chances at 43%.

Personally, I think this election is unprecedented in its nature, so I don't know if I'd be surprised by anything.  I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable relying on historical trends to predict the future of this one.  There are just so many different strong undercurrents pulling things all over the place.  

I wouldn't be surprised by either winning, or by any margin of victory at this point.  A 4th party candidate getting 5% seems possible.  A 3rd party getting 20+?  Maybe.  It's quite entertaining.