(October 13, 2016 at 12:10 am)Rhythm Wrote:(October 12, 2016 at 11:52 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: Of course. But that requires both sides to be looking for such a solution. This doesn't seem to be the case here.It absolutely does. Russias involvement in syria is nothing other -than- a quest for legitimacy, that they feel has been denied to them.
Quote:The fact that Assad's opposition is so fractured means that negotiations are much more complex. Is it easier to sign a cease-fire with one opponent, or six or seven? Be realistic here.I don't think that this was the case, in this case. I think they took a minute, listened to the offer, and felt that it wasn't sweet enough yet.
And yes -- cease-fires can be and often have been pauses used for resupply.
Quote:The problem with this reasoning is that the only bribe that would seem to sate Russia is secure basing, and the folks who stand in the way don't seem amenable to negotiating. The rebels, too, seek a military solution to Assad's regime. Who's going to knock heads here? Us?Without russia backing him up, any number of people. Secure basing, sure..why not. Who in syria is going to say no to a cohesive and cooperating US/Russian force? Fine, let them have their base (we've certainly secured such accomodations many times ourselves), but I think that legitimacy, again, is even sweeter. Even backing them on securing bases grants legitimacy.
Quote:What bribe would you offer Russia for that nation to stand down its forces? And how would we obtain the compliance of the many rebel factions which have heretofore disregarded the cease-fire negotiated in September?I don;t -want- them to stand down, I would like to see the bombing of aleppo stopped. I want them to beat the shit out of isis, just like they said they would. It would be even better if we did it together.
Quote:I get your angst over Aleppo, and I'm not saying that to be an asshole. It's an unfolding tragedy, people starving, gassed, shelled. But what can we Americans do? Tell Russia to knock it off or else? Or else what? And is that country worth our what else?Or else they will inevitably be embroiled in a war against two states that they cannot handle, due to thir entanglement with assads allies, and the kurds......states that do have the will that we don't, currently.
Quote:I keep searching your posts for suggested policies, and keep drawing blanks. What do you think we ought to do?
Be specific.
Like, leashing in turkey and SA while legitimizing base agreements...and cooperating with them in the destruction of isis as a unified force? Provided they cease bombing aleppo and agree to a transition away from assad? There is, ofc, the issue of sanctions as well. Honestly, I don't see russia as holding any chips beyond the borders of syria (and what's that, real estate in hell, lol?)...and how much is it worth to them if they can get a few of these things? The world will condemn them if they continue, regardless...further robbing them of the larger prize even if they succeed, which isn't a given. The trick is to allow them to back out of the course they're on while appearing to gain something, to win. The course they;re on doesn;t get them want they want either, so I;m guessing it wouldn't be impossible...they're not morons.
Give me an hour or two to reply to this post, if you would, please. I haven't even read through it all, but can tell I'm going to have to chew and digest it, there's a lot in there.
Wanted to say too that I'm enjoying this conversation with you, R, and I'm sorry for the snark that snuck in on my part.