Donald Trump manages to be more sensible on Syria than Hilary

[Thumpalumpacus]

A little longer than two hours, and thanks for your patience.

Of course. But that requires both sides to be looking for such a solution. This doesn't seem to be the case here.

It absolutely does.  Russias involvement in syria is nothing other -than- a quest for legitimacy, that they feel has been denied to them.

No doubt. Historical inferiority complex, driving the flexing of muscle.

The fact that Assad's opposition is so fractured means that negotiations are much more complex. Is it easier to sign a cease-fire with one opponent, or six or seven? Be realistic here.

And yes -- cease-fires can be and often have been pauses used for resupply.

I don't think that this was the case, in this case.  I think they took a minute, listened to the offer, and felt that it wasn't sweet enough yet.

Probably true -- but that doesn't demean my point about the complexity of multi-party cease-fires.

The problem with this reasoning is that the only bribe that would seem to sate Russia is secure basing, and the folks who stand in the way don't seem amenable to negotiating. The rebels, too, seek a military solution to Assad's regime. Who's going to knock heads here? Us?

Without russia backing him up, any number of people.  Secure basing, sure..why not.  Who in syria is going to say no to a cohesive and cooperating US/Russian force?  Fine, let them have their base (we've certainly secured such accomodations many times ourselves), but I think that legitimacy, again, is even sweeter.  Even backing them on securing bases grants legitimacy.

There's sticking points here. Russia said it would only cooperate with us there if we laid our intelligence bare -- which of course gives good intel on methods if not actual sources which could be popped -- er, plucked -- to our deficit. You're right about their basing; not only do we do the same thing, but acknowledging that by conceding to them their own would probably be oil on rough waters. But then how much control would we have over rebels insistent on overthrowing the same regime which granted those basing concessions? If those rebels knew we were agreeing to that, would they listen to our admonishments to stop fighting?

What bribe would you offer Russia for that nation to stand down its forces? And how would we obtain the compliance of the many rebel factions which have heretofore disregarded the cease-fire negotiated in September?

I don;t -want- them to stand down, I would like to see the bombing of aleppo stopped.  I want them to beat the shit out of isis, just like they said they would.  It would be even better if we did it together.

What's happening in Aleppo is a crime against humanity. But all the hand-wringing in the world won't change that; it is unfolding as we type, the negotiations are shattered, Russia and America are as distant as they were 50 years ago, and we've got very little skin in the game there.

I get your angst over Aleppo, and I'm not saying that to be an asshole. It's an unfolding tragedy, people starving, gassed, shelled. But what can we Americans do? Tell Russia to knock it off or else? Or else what? And is that country worth our what else?

Or else they will inevitably be embroiled in a war against two states that they cannot handle, due to their entanglement with assads allies, and the kurds......states that do have the will that we don't, currently.  

They are embroiled in a war already. Why should we pull their chestnuts out of the fire?

I keep searching your posts for suggested policies, and keep drawing blanks. What do you think we ought to do?

Be specific.

Like, leashing in turkey and SA while legitimizing base agreements...and cooperating with them in the destruction of isis as a unified force? Provided they cease bombing aleppo and agree to a transition away from assad?  There is, ofc, the issue of sanctions as well.  Honestly, I don't see russia as holding any chips beyond the borders of syria (and what's that, real estate in hell, lol?)...and how much is it worth to them if they can get a few of these things?  The world will condemn them if they continue, regardless...further robbing them of the larger prize even if they succeed, which isn't a given.  The trick is to allow them to back out of the course they're on while appearing to gain something, to win.  The course they;re on doesn;t get them want they want either, so I;m guessing it wouldn't be impossible...they're not morons.

Turkey's gone. The coup took care of that; it was Erdogan's Reichstag fire. Turkey is nominally a NATO member, but they are not our ally, and we have no sway there any more, given the tensions of the last few months.

Saudi? Perhaps we can, in concert with the UK, leash them in by restricting arm sales. But maybe not -- they're engaging in proxy-war with Iran both in Syria and Yemen (after their failure in devastated Iraq).

You're sure right about allowing the Russians to back out and save face at the same time, but I don't see that American ground troops allows that -- it'll be seen, in the Kremlin if not elsewhere, as turning to America for help.