The Trump presidency

[Tonus]

Best realistic scenario

I think the best realistic scenario has a decent chance of happening: he gets very little accomplished early on because GOP hardliners try to use their majorities to push for changes that do not have enough support among their own party and block any changes that are possible in order to force the issue.  The Democrats win enough seats in 2018 to make the hardliners irrelevant and a few items get checked off of the to-do list.  That scenario could also be the best one for Trump since it means that any support he loses from the lunatics who wanted a wall and crippling tariffs and expanded use of torture would be made up by conservatives and fence-sitters who decide that since he didn't blow everything up, he was a success.

But it's more likely that the damage he does will be subtle and felt over the long term.  I expect that the short-term economic boost that will come from relaxing regulations on fossil fuels will push climate change right off of the table for the next four/eight years.  His (and Pence's) views on science could continue to impact attempts at expanding stem cell research and on education in fields like biology, physics, and cosmology.  His picks for the Supreme Court may slow progress in a number of areas.  I am hopeful that there won't be any steps backwards, especially regarding issues like gay marriage and pot legalisation.  Like his predecessors, he has ambitious plans for spending that will lead to more deficits and more debt regardless of what he does with taxes.  And if he relaxes regulations on the banking and finance industries we might be looking at the biggest disaster of all.