Trump Says Market Would Crash If He Gets Impeached

[Angrboda]

Even if Trump had Cohen make payoffs to guarantee those women's silence, it's not clear it would rise to an impeachable offense. First, it's not clear that the expense wouldn't have qualified under the exemption for personal expense which says that any expenses that the candidate would have made even if he hadn't been running for office can be excluded. Second, it's not clear even if it is a campaign finance violation that it rises to an impeachable offense. Many times such violations are punished by a fine rather than criminal charges, and it's not clear that this violation goes beyond that. Also, since the Republicans currently control the Senate and the House, what matters is if they think it rises to the level of an impeachable offense. Impeachment and ultimately conviction would require Republican defections, and it's quite likely you wouldn't see that for anything less than the collusion charges.

Either way, given the control of both houses of congress, even if Mueller has something, I suspect he will wait until after the midterms. Given that his investigation still seems to have a lot of work left to do, I doubt he would even move that soon. But then, if midterms don't go well for Democrats, Kavanaugh's confirmation comes due, and Trump turns toward replacement of Jeff Sessions, there may be incentive for taking actions sooner rather than later.

ps. I hope you had fun at the beach, alpha. It's good to get away.