Random Thoughts

[Angrboda]

Republican voters, outraged by the treatment of their nominee in Congress, are more fired up than they’ve been since the midterms began. They flock to the polls, eager to defend their majority.

Democratic voters are out in droves, too. But the toughest Senate races are being fought in states that President Trump won in 2016. So things are looking bleak for incumbents like Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill and even Jon Tester.

That’s the image many Republicans were painting of the midterms this morning.

But here’s the thing (and it’s a biggie): Today is not Election Day.

You probably didn’t need The New York Times to tell you that.

But hear me out — the timing of this whole confirmation battle matters for the midterms.

A lot.

Pollsters often measure intensity — or how excited people are to vote — by asking them to rate their eagerness on a scale of 1 to 10. Before Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation became so contentious, Republicans told me they were seeing a 12- to 15-point gap between Democrats and Republicans who said they were a 10 on the scale.

Yikes.

Republicans kept waiting for that gap to tighten, as is expected as Election Day nears. But it wasn’t happening, and that was freaking them out.

Now, finally, the gap has closed. A poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist released yesterday found almost no difference in the percentage of Republicans and Democrats who say voting in the November elections is “very important.”

The party has unified. Republicans are thrilled. So is President Trump.

But you know who else is fired up by the confirmation battle? Democrats — particularly the independents and women who are considered crucial voters in battleground suburban counties.
The question is not who is angrier today. The question is whose anger lasts until Election Day.

Here’s another principle in politics: Losers are easier to motivate than winners.

“Every last Democrat in the country is going to come out if he gets confirmed,” said Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster, of Judge Kavanaugh.

Even with that energy, a Democratic sweep is by no means guaranteed. Typically, independents are less likely to vote than people affiliated with parties. Republicans generally turn out in higher numbers for midterms than Democrats. And in a handful of states with early voting, some people are casting ballots right now.

But for most Americans, there are 33 days to get through before they enter a voting booth.

“Election Day is several lifetimes away in the world we’re living in now,” Mr. Ayres said. “It’s entirely possible that the Kavanaugh nomination and confirmation could be a distant memory by then.”

(The New York Times, On Politics with Lisa Lerer)

As Republican tempers moderate, Democrat fires will continue to be stoked by Republican and Trumpian batshittery. Particularly as Republicans put off all big decisions until after midterms.