RE: Shutting down fossil fuel electric plants
October 21, 2018 at 3:36 pm
(This post was last modified: October 21, 2018 at 5:13 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(October 21, 2018 at 3:02 pm)wyzas Wrote:(October 21, 2018 at 1:44 pm)Tizheruk Wrote: It was far from just local as contamination has entered the Pacific ecosystem
causing damage well beyond Japan. And an increase in plant numbers just makes that more likely .
Did it effect the entire planet? Did Chernobyl? Did the hundreds (500+) of bombs?
Let me put it another way, which is the planet (and the human race) more likely to recover from?
To my way of thinking we're going to have to pick. The fear of limited electric power is the greatest fear and a non option. Or maybe global warming isn't the treat I've been lead to believe.
Read about the passive safety developments where Japan would not happen again. There is also micro reactors to take into consideration.
We should remember Mother Earth is one tough bitch. The question isn’t whether the earth will recover, She will. But She operate on time scale 4-5 orders of magnitude greater than history of human civilization. Her recovery, however complete and inexorable, will in most cases not save us.
The question is which will bring more pain, misery, and impoverishment to humanity. That is more difficult to answer. Humans responds more to acute stress than chronic slow boil stress. Major nuclear accident in densely populated area could certainly bring about level of pain and impoverishment as reasonable scenarios of global warming.
For example, a plausible trajectory of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident could have made greater Tokyo untenable, displace 30-40 million people leaving them with scarcely at place to go in their own country and wiped perhaps a third off of Japan’s GDP for a period on the order of 10 years.
Quote:(October 21, 2018 at 2:06 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: I would not be. I do long-term energy market forecast for living. I work with Los Alamo national laboratory On economic assessment of emergent nuclear technology for utility resource planning purposes.
Then you're just the person to ask, more nuclear reactors replacing fossil fuel reactors (as many as possible understand peak demand issues) or not?
In China and India, nuclear will likely replace a portion of existing fossil generation, subject to contingent events such as whether another major nuclear accident happen somewhere in the world over the next 20-30 years. In much of the rest of the world, no, at least not to appreciable degree for the foreseeable future,