It's simple. Do not believe something unless it comes from a source you trust, you have seen it for yourself or you understand the mechanics behind it.
For example, I know that gear ratio dictates the output of a gear train.
I know this because Mr. Lane told me and he is the man.
I know this because I fucked up enough gear trains to see it for myself.
I know this because I understand how all of the gears in a gear train, the speed of the input gear, the size of their teeth and the number of their teeth dictate output, to put it simply. I've done the math, I've seen the math and I have applied the math. I also hate the math.
Long story short, people in most fields of science are not guessing. They have experienced at least two of the three above criteria before they say, "Hey, that's how it works." in most cases.
For example, I know that gear ratio dictates the output of a gear train.
I know this because Mr. Lane told me and he is the man.
I know this because I fucked up enough gear trains to see it for myself.
I know this because I understand how all of the gears in a gear train, the speed of the input gear, the size of their teeth and the number of their teeth dictate output, to put it simply. I've done the math, I've seen the math and I have applied the math. I also hate the math.
Long story short, people in most fields of science are not guessing. They have experienced at least two of the three above criteria before they say, "Hey, that's how it works." in most cases.