[Serious] The Story

[Jehanne]

If you want to appeal to Bayesian statistics, please state your prior probabilities.

I don't believe the math behind Baye's rule is necessary to make better judgments. It is still a way of thinking about evidence and how to change your mind in relation to it, even if your prior probabilities are nothing more than guesses.

The most reasonable thing to do is start with what is known—the dates mentioned in the book itself. Not arbitrarily assuming there's deception and pulling a different date out of thin air. You take the initial known date and start updating your confidence in it given new information.

Okay, state your evidence, please.