Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

Frankly, i don't think Russia has the time to build up its forces again for another offensive. I think they have overextended themselves trying to take Soledar but they can't seem like they aren't overextended due to the loss of face that would be considering the huge losses they took capturing it.

As much as I'd like to agree with you, I think there's another human wave or two coming. News has been, on the backburner, about conscripts training in Belorus. I don't think that will get much Russian steamrolling going on, but all the same UAF frontline troops will have to fight them off.

I suspect that both sides are piecemealing forces into the Bakhmut region in order to build up reserves for planned offensives, and it's a race to see who feels the jump-off point first -- and do they go too soon or too late?

At this stage, after the clear Ukrainian victories in the autumn, it looks to me like both sides are trying to angle for advantage. The Ukrainians have to race against large, untrained forces assaulting them, and the Russians have to race against inflowing supplies of armor and ammo.

I think the leadership, both theater and small-unit, will make the difference, and I think the Ukrainians have the advantage in both aspects. But both sides are tired and husbanding units, is my sense, for what that's worth. I think the Russians will launch poorly-trained mass waves trying to get ahead of the recent decision to supply about an armored division's worth of tanks.