Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

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There's a long history of regimes falling as a consequence of a failed invasion, just in general. More specific to russia is that they've dumped too much money and too many lives into the crimean project, most of that not even in crimea, and there's no universe where ukraine doesn't keep grinding away until, like the black sea fleet, russia abandons it. The point of donetsk and luhansk was to keep ukraine out of NATO and the EU while drawing troops away from crimea, failed objectives...and the collaborators they used as an excuse to send little green men are all dead or thoroughly soured on russia - according to the russian soldiers in the occupied regions.

Losing any of these places, and they will lose them whether to ukraine or to independence, is already a problem for the fed, as they swear up and down that's russia forever (Like Kherson...) and they've been cannibalizing the rest of their country to make it so. That, in the process, they exposed themselves as a paper tiger has implications for the hyper centralized control scheme that putin has been running - and it's central asian partners have been grumbling and looking elsewhere the entire time. Who wants a security agreement with a nation that A- doesn't respect such agreements..and B can't uphold them? Particularly when they could partner with...say...china.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the club. Loosely, china, belarus, nk and iran. Putin said there were no limits. China quickly and publicly corrected that misapprehension. They, ofc, are responsible for propping up russia in it's war. Helping to evade sanctions, as a petroleum buyer, as a middleman for nk. They're not doing any of that so that russia will win, though. It's a debt trap, and one that they've been running all over eastern russia. China wants russia to lose, and lose badly. The worse the better. The longer and more painfully drawn out the better. On chinese maps, parts of russia..are china. It fancies itself a near arctic nation and looks forward to the resource rush that global warming is setting up. Oh, and the water. All of that water. Some 20% of the global freshwater supply in just one lake in disputed territory. Belarus is tied at the hip to russia but even they're doing everything they can to not help putin. Always busy washing their hair or whatever. NK could make quality artillery shells and they certainly do - but they've been sending russia shells that are so out of spec they cant hit a barn, and that's assuming they didn't just blow up in the barrel, furthering along what the russians call an artillery genocide. Irans solid, for what that's worth. Providing russia with weapons that russia is intent on using any way -but- the destruction of ukranian war material. It's assumed that they're doing this for help with their nuclear projects. Any of the folks in the club could send troops...but they haven't. Even if they get around to doing it sometime in the future they'll have already fucked russia pretty hard in the delay.

Back at home, Putin panders to ultra nationalist loons. These helpful little werewolves won't accept a russian retreat or defeat. Putin (or his successor) will have to pay this bill no matter what happens. If they retreat to rebuild their country they'll be pissed. If they stay until ukraine beats them down, they'll be pissed. If russia wins something, anything, and the locals aren't exterminated and their property handed over to the nationalists...they'll be pissed. They're not dissimilar from our own loons here in the states (if it even makes sense to call them different groups.....). They want to tear down what they see as weakness in the russian state, internally. All of that is a play for an audience of just two. Moscow and St Pete. Putin is doing everything he can do to make the rest of the country shoulder the war burden. This suggests, like his mad flight out of harms way when Prigo came knocking, that putin does not feel secure. Grandpa in his bunker.

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TLDR version.
Because they've created or were already in the same situations that so commonly lead there. Because putin fucked up. Because there is apparently no means of self correction in those fuckups. Because it's strongest partner has a vested interest in reducing them to a client state and they're already well on the way to taking eastern russia through economic investment and demographic replacement. Because their central asian partners are already publicly humiliating putin when he bothers to show up. Because donetsk and luhansk want russia out even if they don't want ukraine in. Because russia couldn't stop a column of mercs marching on moscow. Because moscow and st pete aren't onboard with using their own sons to prop up the regime. Because the domestic faction most invested and supportive of the current state of the russian state also wants to destroy the russian administrative state. Because they're a petrostate run by a criminal syndicate in a post peak world full of global police and global police wannabes.