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(November 28, 2023 at 11:42 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: The People’s Liberation Army is a much fiercer opponent. They are already the N-1 fleet in the world. Their Chengdu J-20 are similar to NATO F-35’s. And the rest of their equipment and army is very modern too.
China can still not move onto Taiwan any time soon. And (you are right) they wouldn’t want that either. If only the microprocessor industry in Taiwan is hit, this will cripple all of their major industries as well.
Many Western Companies are moving out while they can. And they will probably not repeat the mistake in India. Because much of the know-how of western companies has already been transferred to the Chinese. Now (for instance) they have the cheapest and most effective Electric cars to invade European markets (And the EU is protecting itself by pointing out to the fact that these cars are too heavily subsidized by the Chinese Government).
They are also investing very heavily on AI technologies. And they also have this vision of “world domination by 2025”. So if the US was to become busy fighting a war with Iran (before the end of the war in Ukraine) Xi could be tempted to make a move on Taiwan. Similarly, they may be waiting for some sort of mismanagement in the West to compete more decisively with the West in many key sectors (like AI for instance).
But I’m still counting on the rational fabric of their society. I think, they would not act like a destabilizing element in the world like Russia did for so many years. So I’m always in favor of all sorts of diplomatic efforts and enhanced dialogue toward that country.
The PLA "fierce"? What combat experience do they have to justify that description? Granted that the Taiwanese army is equally inexperienced, they're still sitting onshore while the inexperienced PLA is attempting the most difficult of operations, a seaborne amphibious invasion.
That said, diplomacy is indeed preferable, so long as it isn't appeasement.