RE: China & Russia
November 28, 2023 at 1:52 pm
(This post was last modified: November 28, 2023 at 2:41 pm by Anomalocaris.)
I agree right now the PLA is unlikely to be able to successfully subdue Taiwan with a amphibious invasion against opposition, and currently it is also unlikely to be able maintain an blockade of taiwan for long enough to starve taiwan into submission against determined efforts by the US, Japan and other western aligned states to both break the blockade and dissipate chinese strength by opening fronts at other places sensitive to china.
But i think it is foolish in the long run to think china will refrain from attacking taiwan merely out of consideration of what that would do ttaiwan’s semiconductor or other industry china might want. The argument that a successful chinese invasion will be killing the goose that lay the golden is far off the mark. china is not after THAT golden egg. taiwan’s main significant to china is not what taiwan has but taiwan itself. taiwan itself is the egg, not what’s in it. Mainland commentaries and pundits frequently assets that if the stand off between taiwan and china rattle nerves and cause those with skills and determined to not to live under CCP rule to emigrate and thus hollow out taiwan’s economy, that is just fine with china. china jjust want the land.
The CCP sees asserting control over taiwan as the guarantor of the long term legitimacy of the communist party by demonstrating it is the government that fully reversed the century of humiliation starting from the 1840s that saw china lose large number of territories as well as full sovereignty over territory nominally remaining to it. taiwan is a particular sensitive point for mainland chinese nationalists and communists because 1. of all the major territory lost by the last manchu dynasty, taiwan is the only one which had been held by china before the Manchu dynasty, 2. Taiwan is the only territory which had been lost to a western power but which china then successfully reconquered from the western power in the 16th century, and 3. taiwan is seen as the last piece of unfinished business when communists took over in 1949, unfinished because of the hostile intervention by the US in 1949.
To the CCP, if taiwan’s semiconductor expertise is lost to china, that a minor set back which can be reversed in a few years or a decade or two at most. but gaining control over taiwan will guaranty legitimacy of the communist party in the eyes of nationalists for centuries. on the other hand, failing to gain control over taiwan a century after the CCP gained control of rest of china might delegitimize the communist party in the eyes of nationalists as ultimately incapable of fully asserting chinese sovereignty against foreign intervention.
But i think it is foolish in the long run to think china will refrain from attacking taiwan merely out of consideration of what that would do ttaiwan’s semiconductor or other industry china might want. The argument that a successful chinese invasion will be killing the goose that lay the golden is far off the mark. china is not after THAT golden egg. taiwan’s main significant to china is not what taiwan has but taiwan itself. taiwan itself is the egg, not what’s in it. Mainland commentaries and pundits frequently assets that if the stand off between taiwan and china rattle nerves and cause those with skills and determined to not to live under CCP rule to emigrate and thus hollow out taiwan’s economy, that is just fine with china. china jjust want the land.
The CCP sees asserting control over taiwan as the guarantor of the long term legitimacy of the communist party by demonstrating it is the government that fully reversed the century of humiliation starting from the 1840s that saw china lose large number of territories as well as full sovereignty over territory nominally remaining to it. taiwan is a particular sensitive point for mainland chinese nationalists and communists because 1. of all the major territory lost by the last manchu dynasty, taiwan is the only one which had been held by china before the Manchu dynasty, 2. Taiwan is the only territory which had been lost to a western power but which china then successfully reconquered from the western power in the 16th century, and 3. taiwan is seen as the last piece of unfinished business when communists took over in 1949, unfinished because of the hostile intervention by the US in 1949.
To the CCP, if taiwan’s semiconductor expertise is lost to china, that a minor set back which can be reversed in a few years or a decade or two at most. but gaining control over taiwan will guaranty legitimacy of the communist party in the eyes of nationalists for centuries. on the other hand, failing to gain control over taiwan a century after the CCP gained control of rest of china might delegitimize the communist party in the eyes of nationalists as ultimately incapable of fully asserting chinese sovereignty against foreign intervention.
