(November 10, 2024 at 2:11 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote:(November 10, 2024 at 7:26 am)pocaracas Wrote: Wouldn't it be true that any end of the war that doesn't instate a puppet of the US or China in the Kremlin is a chance for Russia to rearm and reinvade (even other ex-soviet states)?
Putin needs someone else to enforce this outcome on the ukrainians because he...obviously...is incapable of doing so himself. This isn't a simple issue of king donald going on not twitter to hereby declare something. Boots will have to be on the ground to keep the ukrainians from grinding down what's left of russian forces, and shoot down whatever strike packages happen to wiz overhead. Whoever does this will have putin by the balls. If the us outlines the deal and china holds the ground then we'll each have a testicle. In this, putin is relying on ukraine to reject any offer because he could not himself accept any of his own offers.
None of this is in the interest of russia as a state, though, no more than the invasion of ukraine was itself. Putins replacement might be worse than him, almost certainly will be, but they can also use the narrative that putin has been building as his own escape hatch by prosecuting and murdering admin officials, by allowing russians to openly criticize the state and spread this narrative online...which excuses the great man on account of how his generals failed him. A replacement would not be forced to commit to putins errors, but could definitely benefit from his lies.
So, no, I don't think that any end to the war that doesn't install a us or chinese puppet will amount to such a chance. Only ones that directly benefit putin, and immediately, will do that. Though I do think the second half of that is true no matter what. The next leader of russia will by force of necessity have to look for lower hanging fruit than ukraine.
Very much agreed. The Russians have a historical habit of eating dead leaders, only to s]regurgitate the efflux[/s] rehabilitate him when it proves useful to a future regime.
