RE: Russia and Ukraine
February 6, 2025 at 12:53 pm
(This post was last modified: February 6, 2025 at 1:06 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
-specific examples
They believed that the ukranians would greet them as liberators. However, they clearly had a plan if they were wrong about that - they brought mobile crematoria.
They believed that the ukranian army was incompetent and more than half would defect. They still condensed overwhelming force and the best gear they had into an attempted decapitation attack.
They believed that the world was uninterested in assisting ukraine. They still pursued a reflexive control campaign.
The war in ukraine represents russias best laid plans. When those all went to shit they enacted their best laid contingencies. What you've seen, and what they have now, is the best they can do and all that remains. Just as ukrainians are very lucky that the enemy is stupid, russians are very lucky it hasn't gone worse. I say this for values of worse greater than the situation on the ground. There was a popular meme n ukranian channels before the thunder run up north...where they wagonwheeled through the russian occupation and liberated eastern ukraine from the rear. If Syrski had his way or been overall commander of forces that's exactly what they would have attempted. They ended up completing a portion of a battle plan that was out there as a meme for some time. Since then, another meme circulating has given russia cause for worry. The invasion of russia, and a drive to moscow. As a concept, it's already been tested...by russians. For now it would seem like a costly use of troops and material...but who knows what the decisionmaking process would look like if the ukranian mod felt pushed against a wall and in need of making some last effort. That we even find ourselves in this moment where ukraine is grinding russia to dust in a war of attrition broadens the horizon of what strange things may happen in war.
They believed that the ukranians would greet them as liberators. However, they clearly had a plan if they were wrong about that - they brought mobile crematoria.
They believed that the ukranian army was incompetent and more than half would defect. They still condensed overwhelming force and the best gear they had into an attempted decapitation attack.
They believed that the world was uninterested in assisting ukraine. They still pursued a reflexive control campaign.
The war in ukraine represents russias best laid plans. When those all went to shit they enacted their best laid contingencies. What you've seen, and what they have now, is the best they can do and all that remains. Just as ukrainians are very lucky that the enemy is stupid, russians are very lucky it hasn't gone worse. I say this for values of worse greater than the situation on the ground. There was a popular meme n ukranian channels before the thunder run up north...where they wagonwheeled through the russian occupation and liberated eastern ukraine from the rear. If Syrski had his way or been overall commander of forces that's exactly what they would have attempted. They ended up completing a portion of a battle plan that was out there as a meme for some time. Since then, another meme circulating has given russia cause for worry. The invasion of russia, and a drive to moscow. As a concept, it's already been tested...by russians. For now it would seem like a costly use of troops and material...but who knows what the decisionmaking process would look like if the ukranian mod felt pushed against a wall and in need of making some last effort. That we even find ourselves in this moment where ukraine is grinding russia to dust in a war of attrition broadens the horizon of what strange things may happen in war.
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