(March 1, 2025 at 10:20 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(March 1, 2025 at 10:16 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: Thumpalumpacus:
I’m only speculating here. But it seems to me that he is really trying to push for some sort of deal. He said “I could say a lot about Putin if I wanted to. But I’m trying to get both sides to agree on something”
And if he does not do it, Than who? (It’s probably not going to be the East-Roman Ruler, I can tell you that much)
Of course he's pushing for a deal. He has consistently been against Ukraine in this war and has been since Day One. Anyone with half-a-brain knows that freezing the lines here, declaring a cease-fire, but refusing to give Ukraine security guarantees -- which is what caused yesterday's blow-up -- is a recipe for this war's reignition in a couple of years.
Security gurarantees were given when Ukraine was "convinced" to denuclearize... See how well those went? That's why Zelensky was pushing so much for those guarantees. He needs them to be firmer than whatever was given to his country way back in the 90's,
Concerning the mineral deposits in Ukraine, those were never a secret and they were likely Russia's main goal with this conflict that has been going on since the early 2014 or so.
I've recently learned that the EU had an agreement with Ukraine, penned in 2021, just before Russia invaded how curious, for a partnership on raw materials.
Of course, Trump can't... err... trump over that pre-existing partnership and Zalensky knows that the EU is right next door and far more keen on helping them than the US, so why would he replace one partnership with 500 million people in favor of a deal with 350 million?
A partnership, as flawed as it may be considering that the EU is involved, means that both parties gain something and grow together.
A deal is an exchange of things. Considering how beligerant Trump and his lapdog, Vance, were, I'd say the deal would greatly benefit certain US businesses and leave Ukraine ravaged, like so many other mining areas of the globe have been (some in Africa and S.America by Europeans... shuushhh!)
Russia is also interested in those minerals so they could have tried to get a foot in that agreement with the EU and create a pan-european partnership in such a way that everyone would gain something. But it seems that was not their desire. Peaceful coexistence is always very difficult for those who wish for ever an growing power.
As it stands today, Russia will only back away from Donbas by force or by economic ruin. None of those seem to be materializing, so the war continues.
The people in those regions are mostly russian speaking and russian identifying, so it's unlikely that they will revolt against the present powers taht be.
Ukraine will give up on those provinces when they have no more people, or ammo, or equipment which is now mostly dependent on EU support.
Place your bets on which part of this chessboard falls off first.
