Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

CIA reportedly gave the biden admin a 50/50 chance putin would go nuclear after he realized he'd fucked around, which was fairly early in the conflict no matter what russian shit keeps flooding the zone. Then, if we follow pro-ukranian correspondents critical of the ukranian administration....there were disagreements between the us and ukraine about how to use our weapon systems and more broadly about strategy. On top of all of that, ukraine has been transitioning away from a soviet army and all that this entails - essentialy the same issues with russias military - including corruption and grift. Some of which look in retrospect to have been mistakes and stubbornness on ukraines part...there is no shortage of examples the ukranian government is trying to deal with. I believe the task force for that finally got out it's first cases last week? The overall snafu got zaluzhyi fired and the military command structure beneath him is being aggressively reshaped for younger commanders with combat experience, leading brigades with western training and equipment. Even so, zaluzhyi is the presumptive frontrunner in any scheme to replace zelensky - which would not result in a government more amenable to peace on russias terms. These are or were all considerations in how to schedule assistance....but all of them were academic. Ukraine can't stand up brigades to use the gear without a full mobilization, which they've been reluctant to do. You need volunteers to lead. You need volunteers to smash through the enemy against incredible odds. There are just not enough volunteers anywhere to win an existential war. Not in russia, not in ukraine, not in the west or the us either. It's going to come down to a draft which will be politically disastrous but militarily necessary.

The political situation for russia in ukraine is as abysmal, even in the separatist regions, as the military situation. They will not accept or respect a peace under these conditions.