Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

He can cut off aid if Zelenskyy doesn't agree to whatever terms Vlad dictates to the mad king.

Sure, and US aid has been spotty because of this....but US aid isn't vlads problem.  Ukraine has been a thorn in their side without it.  US aid allows ukraine to take the fight deep into the russian backfield, and to prevent civilian loss inside ukraine...but it's never been a precondition for ukranian forces eating russians forces lunch or for the people of ukraine to favor resistance over annihilation in ukraine even as and especially because they're being targeted over higher (military) value targets that russia does not believe it could reliably hit.  

The war started a decade before the full scale invasion, at a time when ukraine had no real army, and in which those forces it did have were not just compromised by but -at the command level- almost entirely comprised of russian simps and traitors.  Russia really could have won at the start of the full scale invasion in just 72 hours.  The outcome for the battle of hostomel airport both denied them their logistic bridgehead for the mech infantry occupation and every lever required to effect the military decapitation or political regime change of ukranian leadership.  In the first few days they were in effective control of 27% of ukranian territory, ukraine being roughly the size of texas.  Since then, ukraine has eradicated the black sea fleet, with no navy of their own.  They have purged..with russian help, every top and mid level commander of value from the tactical and strategic space.  They have attritted the russian military, the russian prison system, and the russian colonial conscription machine, and recaptured around 25% of the territory russia enjoyed at the outset.  By last year this time russia was in nominal control of roughly 18% of ukraine.  Today they are in nominal control of 19%, at the cost of roughly one million lives lost - either in the final sense..or worse, as mental and physical casualties of war and a drain on the russian state until the day they die.  Putin has had to assassinate his closest allies, most effect commanders, and most credible political opposition.  The russian economy is a smoldering husk of what wasn't shit to begin with.  He has begun flirting with executing his most competent sanctions evaders and financial wizards.

-but putin met with trump in alaska and trump is a reliable client dictator.

So what?  Ceding territory is against the ukranian constitution in a legal and cultural sense.  Ukraines domestic drone defense industry is the envy of the west.  Their troops are the most experienced fighting force on earth. When we did our recent wargames, it was ukranian officers who were asked to design the mock engagements and restrictions.  Who planned the opfor action and escalations.  The entire russian state has been bent to the war effort..which is not soviet russia and cannot absorb the demographic or economic loss it's predecessor could - even if putin mistakenly believes or simply must as a matter of personal survival contend as much.  The russian military does not have the structure or the logistics or the people or the will to defeat ukraine on the battlefield, and russin simps in ukraine or the us do not actually have any legal or practical means to end the conflict on russia's terms - and have not exactly been left alone to do their work unimpeded by the ukranian leadership in the interim.  It's become a war russia cannot afford to win and putin cannot afford to lose, and not for the presence or absence of us aid. We're just not that important anymore. Not because we couldn't be. Because maga doesn't want us to be. Meanwhile, the russian version of maga is steadily huffing this hopium bullshit about defeating ukraine in the next two weeks then frog marching the new meat against nato for all of their crimes. Because sure. They can't defeat ukraine, but they'll finally get their promised smash and grab loot against nato.......and ukranians will definitely help....

If I had the misfortune of being assigned to command a russian assault group I'd throw myself out a window and be done with it, it would be quicker and less painful...with a cleaner conscience to boot. Not because I'm a moral fucking paragon, but because I'm not a mouth breathing goober. Russia has lost the russo-ukranian war. It doesn't even matter what happens next. It hasn't for some time now. A more accurate assesment of what donald and vlad are up to now, respecting what the us could do..if it wanted to. Putin is negotiating with death..and death, in this case, is an elderly dementia patient with domestic pedo problems and a history of stiffing contractors. The Good Guys aren't going to win, that opportunity is far off in the rearview - but putin is going to lose. Donald fucking Trump is a uniquely desperate choice of savior...but don't take my word for it, ask the maggots....ask the russians.

If zelenskyy went on ukranian tv today and called for ukrainian people to accept russian demands, they'd kill him and continue fighting with zaluzhnyi at the head.