Russia and Ukraine

[The Grand Nudger]

The operational assumptions russia was working on, and which is broadly respective of their general assumption - is that the invaded party would not fight back and no one would help them. In that context, it hardly matters whether russia would be militarily capable of successfully invading and occupying x y or z country. Only whether or not they think they could get away with the attempt long enough to declare those regions russia forever, in furtherance of creating a larger grey zone, that they fully intend to then tie up in international courts and politics.

The question is not so much why the world ought to let such an inept military draw new maps - because hybrid war doesn't require a competent military or the nuts and bolts ability to conquer another nation by direct force. The question is what makes anyone think that a regime so inclined to the detriment of it's own current citizens could be held or deemed to be credibly responsible for the administration and welfare of newly subjugated ones. If ukraine falls, and it's always been a possibility regardless of russian incompetence, that will create a new wave of refugees that russia intends to use as ammo against the next nation putins revanchist fantasies settle on, to soften the ground before they frog march whatever remaining ukranians there are into battle against their neighbors. Ask the chechens.