Need some help refuting this creation argument...

[pocaracas]

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Hello,

A friend of mine's father (lifelong atheist and believer in evolutionary theory) has been shown some stuff from a creationist relative and sadly has him swayed. There are two main points I want to dismantle here (I'm hopeful if I dissuade him early on that his capacity for reason will still function), the first of which is this article on the mathematics of mutation rates:

http://www.icr.org/article/493/

I've seen similar arguments around, but I'm no maths wizz so I'm struggling to pinpoint exactly where these numbers go wrong, so I was hoping someone could help me on this.

The second point is the familiar "where are all the man/monkey fossils" argument which I'm much more familiar with, and feel confident dealing with myself. If, however, anyone had any links or additional info obviously that would be helpful.

I was tempted to dismiss this (I don't even know this person particularly well) but I can't shake the feeling that a well put together email could completely change this guys retirement from open minded wonder at the universe as science reveals it.......or close minded crack pottery.

Thanks in advance for your responses.

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The numbers are sound.... if the whole mutation from single cell organism to 200 celled organism occurs in one go.
Evolution always claims that mutations happen over time.... lots and lots of time, lots and lots of generations.
One "positive" mutation gives rise to a new species which spreads out and generates a lot of individuals.
A new "positive" mutation in an individual of this species then creates a new species which should multiply in numbers far better than the previous species.
And so on and so forth...
The odds should be taken one at a time, instead of all at the same time.
So they don't multiply, they get compounded (as in a series of conditioned probabilities) which makes the math even more complicated.... but probably gives nicer odds for each of the thousands of species on Earth.