RE: Need some help refuting this creation argument...
October 12, 2012 at 4:21 pm
(This post was last modified: October 12, 2012 at 4:24 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
Happy to do my part
The probability of any future hand of cards being dealt to you in a game of poker is infinitesimally low, but calling a specific hand that you hold "too improbable to have been dealt therefore impossible to be holding" is a bit absurd...don't you think? Now what what conclusion was this shitbird hoping to draw about biology and evolution again...and how was hoping to draw it?
Quote:The evolutionist might react by saying that even though any one such mutating organism might not be successful, surely some around the world would be, especially in the 10 billion years (or 10^18 seconds) of assumed earth historyAssumed earth history eh? So it isn't just evolution this one feels he's thoroughly debunked by means of his lucky numbers but geology, cosmology, and physics as well? Good for him.
Quote:Therefore, let us imagineDown this road lay only tears. You know why you see this phrase so often in creationists arguments? Because that's all they have, imagining. They don't like observing...because it fails to paint the picture they hope to hang on their wall. Thankfully we don't need to "imagine" this stuff. We have observation and experiment.
Quote: that every one of the earth's 10^14 square feet of surface harbors a billion (i.e., 10^9) mutating systems and that each mutation requires one-half second (actually it would take far more time than this). Each system can thus go through its 200 mutations in 100 seconds and then, if it is unsuccessful, start over for a new try. In 10^18 seconds, there can, therefore, be 10^18/10^2, or 10^16, trials by each mutating system. Multiplying all these numbers together, there would be a total possible number of attempts to develop a 200-component system equal to 10^14 (10^9) (10^16), or 10^39 attempts. Since the probability against the success of any one of them is 10^60, it is obvious that the probability that just one of these 10^39 attempts might be successful is only one out of 10^60/10^39, or 10^21.
The probability of any future hand of cards being dealt to you in a game of poker is infinitesimally low, but calling a specific hand that you hold "too improbable to have been dealt therefore impossible to be holding" is a bit absurd...don't you think? Now what what conclusion was this shitbird hoping to draw about biology and evolution again...and how was hoping to draw it?
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