(February 20, 2013 at 3:23 am)Aractus Wrote: Hahahaha, you "predict" that an Assange ticket will get elected? That's just crazy. Most Australians vote for the major parties - ALP and Libs/Nats. The Greens are a minor party who's popularity has peaked as they becoming increasingly less popular among first-time-voters, environmentalists, and even left-wing voters. All the candidates you mentioned have the potential to get elected, but in all likely hood there will not be any more independents or minor-party Senators than there are at present.
Nick Xenophon was elected to the Senate for South Australia in 2007 and is facing re-election this year. Although in 2007 he won 14.8% of the popular vote in South Australia, as far as I know nobody is doubting he will be re-elected in September.
The Democratic Labor Party Senator from Victoria John Mulholland was elected back in 2010 (so is not facing re-election this year) through favorable preference flows from other parties (despite only winning 2% of the vote).
Bob Katter's Australia Party I reckon have a reasonable chance of winning a Senate seat in Queensland. Those chances would be boosted if they can get favorable preference flows from other parties.
Also while the Greens vote in the opinion polls is down compared to the last election, however it is not down by much. The Newspolls over the last several months had the Greens federally at between 8% and 11%, compared to 12% at the last election. Greens support is more stable than declining.
The Greens will probably not get as many senators elected as they did in 2010 (which was 6), however only the 3 (Hanson-Young, Ludlam and Whish-Wilson) elected in 2007 are facing re-election this year and only Hanson-Young might not get re-elected. Unless Assange decides to run for the Senate in Victoria, the Greens should get a senator elected there (which they did not achieve in 2007). So in the next parliament the Greens will maintain their numbers or lose a senator.
Quote:Assange isn't going to get elected because people like him. And there are a shitload of Australians who don't like him too, so there's no way that his popularity vote will win him a Senate seat. He will have to campaign effectively on key issues facing Australia for the next three years. People want to know that a Senator is willing to be their voice, so he will have to campaign on how he will be the community's voice, what community values facing Victoria that he will fight for, etc.
Actually I believe Assange would be fighting a Senate election campaign on issues such as censorship, freedom of speech and copyright laws. These are not inconsiderable issues to a sizable slice of the electorate.
Also in ordinary half-senate elections a candidate or party needs around 14% of the vote to be guaranteed a senate seat. Although you can still get elected with a lot less of the vote, if you can get a favorable preference flow from the other parties. There have been occasions where Senators have been elected with as little as 2% of the vote. However got really good preference flows.
So if Assange were to run for the Senate, he would easily get much more than 2% of the vote. More near the 14% of the vote needed to be guaranteed a Senate spot. He would get some of that support from those who currently support the Greens, who aren't radical environmentalists (which is a sizable slice of their current supporters and even membership).
I have to disagree about your assessment that Australians are a 'center-right' nation, certainly not by American standards. To many Americans if they were familiar enough with Australian politics, they would consider us a nation of pinko liberals, if not socialists. In America for example our industrial relations laws would be condemned as anti-competitive, because they put severe restrictions on employers firing their employees.
Finally personally I believe Assange wants to become a Senator in order to make it extremely difficult for him to be extradited to Sweden. Because imagine the Scandal if an Australian Senator were to be extradited.
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