(April 4, 2014 at 10:18 am)Heywood Wrote:(April 4, 2014 at 9:57 am)Alex K Wrote: I'm on the fence, tending towards yes. And I just gave you one.
If A and B both have a 50% probability of being true then the probability of the existence of a creating intellect goes above 50%.
The reason this would be the case is because 50% of the time A is true and by necessity of it being true a creating intellect exists.
However if B is true the multiverse itself could still have been created by an intellect. Unless you can show the existence of a multiverse positively excludes the existence of a creating intellect, you have to acknowledge there is some probability, call it X, that creating intellect exists. X might be exceedingly small...but it is not 0.
If A and B are equally likely, the probability of the existence of a creating intellect is 50% + X.
You think adding more hypotheses increases your prior probability? You are doing bayes wrong, it lowers it. And why do you think just because there are two possiblities on the table, the probabilities are 50% each?
The fool hath said in his heart, There is a God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none that doeth good.
Psalm 14, KJV revised edition
